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Spurs at Clippers

NBA · Monday, Mar 16 · 9:00 PM CT · Intuit Dome · Final SA 119 – LAC 115
← NBA / Mar 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA29372627119
LAC37153033115
Team box
SA·LAC
43-93
field goals
43-89
10-36
3-pointers
11-29
23-29
free throws
18-24
52
rebounds
37
25
assists
25
15
turnovers
14
64
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Darius GarlandLAC3225210
Stephon CastleSA362378
Jordan MillerLAC262293
Victor WembanyamaSA3421132
Devin VassellSA352034
De'Aaron FoxSA291836

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAC +24
SA +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAC 14 · SA 24lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 53%, LAC 47% · Updated Mar 16

Expected margin
SA by 1.2
Expected score
SA 113.3 – 112.1 LAC
Expected total
225.4
SpursThe matchupClippers
−114Our fair odds+114
113.3Expected points112.1
+0.54Power rating+0.23
118.8Points / game113.4
112.0Allowed / game112.6
48.1FG%48.3
35.63P%36.0
46.4Rebounds / game40.8
49−19Season record34−33
8−2Last 107−3
David Jones Garcia · Dylan Harper
Emanuel Miller · Harrison Ingram
Luke KornetOutBradley Beal · Kawhi Leonard
Yanic Konan Niederhauser

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · LAC chance
Our model fair53.2%46.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs−11453%————
LACLA Clippers+11447%————
SpreadSA by 1.2
SASan Antonio Spurs−1.2our margin————
LACLA Clippers+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.4
Over225.4our total————
Under225.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 1.2 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%LA Clippers by 1 point: 2%LA Clippers by 2 points: 2%LA Clippers by 3 points: 2%LA Clippers by 4 points: 2%LA Clippers by 5 points: 3%LA Clippers by 6 points: 3%LA Clippers by 7 points: 3%LA Clippers by 8 points: 3%LA Clippers by 9 points: 2%LA Clippers by 10 points: 2%LA Clippers by 11 points: 2%LA Clippers by 12 points: 2%LA Clippers by 13 points: 2%LA Clippers by 14 points: 2%LA Clippers by 15 points: 2%LA Clippers by 16 points: 1%LA Clippers by 17 points: 1%LA Clippers by 18 points: 1%LA Clippers by 19 points: 1%LA Clippers by 20 points: 1%LA Clippers by 21 points: 1%LA Clippers by 22 points: 1%LA Clippers by 23 points: 1%LA Clippers by 24 points: 1%LA Clippers by 25 points: 1%LA Clippers by 26 points: <1%LA Clippers by 27 points: <1%LA Clippers by 28 points: <1%LA Clippers by 29 points: <1%LA Clippers by 30 points: <1%LA Clippers by 31 points: <1%LA Clippers by 32 points: <1%LA Clippers by 33 points: <1%LA Clippers by 34 points: <1%LA Clippers by 35 points: <1%LA Clippers by 36 points: <1%LA Clippers by 37 points: <1%LA Clippers by 38 points: <1%LA Clippers by 39 points: <1%LA Clippers by 40 points: <1%LA Clippers by 41 points: <1%LA Clippers by 42 points: <1%
← SA wins byLAC wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more43%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more29%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.4 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.569%
Total over 225.549%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted
LA Clippers
GKris Dunnstarted
GDarius Garlandstarted
FJohn Collinsstarted
FDerrick Jones Jr.started
CBrook Lopezstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·LAC
Mar 14 vs CHA
last game
Mar 14 vs SAC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 16, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SADylan Harper · right calf; contusionOut
SAEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SALuke Kornet · right knee; sorenessOut
LA Clippers
LACBradley Beal · left hip; fractureOut
LACKawhi Leonard · left ankle; sprainOut
LACYanic Konan Niederhauser · right lisfranc ligament; tearOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 67+ games
SA·LAC
+0.54
rating (0 = average)
+0.23
118.8
points / game
113.4
112.0
points allowed / game
112.6
49−19
season record
34−33
26−7
home record
19−14
23−12
away record
15−19
W1
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
7−3
48.1
FG%
48.3
35.6
3P%
36.0
46.4
rebounds / game
40.8
27.4
assists / game
23.6
13.5
turnovers / game
14.3
50.7
points in paint / game
49.0

Rating Trend

SA · LAC · 132 days
San Antonio SpursLA Clippers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAC 8−2
Mar 6at SASA 116 − 112
Apr 8, 2025at LACLAC 122 − 117
Jan 29, 2025at SALAC 128 − 116
Dec 31, 2024at SASA 122 − 86
Nov 4, 2024at LACLAC 113 − 104
Nov 22, 2023at SALAC 109 − 102
Nov 20, 2023at SALAC 124 − 99
Oct 29, 2023at LACLAC 123 − 83
Jan 26, 2023at LACLAC 138 − 100
Jan 20, 2023at SALAC 131 − 126

SA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Mar 14vs CHA115 − 102W
Mar 12vs DEN131 − 136L
Mar 10vs BOS125 − 116W
Mar 8vs HOU145 − 120W
Mar 6vs LAC116 − 112W
Mar 5vs DET121 − 106W
Mar 3at PHI131 − 91W
Mar 1at NY89 − 114L
Feb 26at BKN126 − 110W
Feb 25at TOR110 − 107W

LAC · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Mar 14vs SAC109 − 118L
Mar 13vs CHI119 − 108W
Mar 11vs MIN153 − 128W
Mar 9vs NY126 − 118W
Mar 7at MEM123 − 120W
Mar 6at SA112 − 116L
Mar 4vs IND130 − 107W
Mar 2at GS114 − 101W
Mar 1vs NO137 − 117W
Feb 26vs MIN88 − 94L