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Hornets at Spurs

NBA · Saturday, Mar 14 · 2:30 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final CHA 102 – SA 115
← NBA / Mar 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHA24223719102
SA31283224115
Team box
CHA·SA
35-93
field goals
43-92
18-54
3-pointers
11-33
14-17
free throws
18-21
39
rebounds
54
18
assists
29
12
turnovers
13
30
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Victor WembanyamaSA3132128
Miles BridgesCHA342242
Kon KnueppelCHA322063
Coby WhiteCHA261842
De'Aaron FoxSA351764
LaMelo BallCHA221742

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +19
CHA +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 19 · CHA 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHA 31%, SA 69% · Updated Mar 14

Expected margin
SA by 5.6
Expected score
SA 115.9 – 110.3 CHA
Expected total
226.2
HornetsThe matchupSpurs
+222Our fair odds−222
110.3Expected points115.9
−0.09Power rating+0.54
115.7Points / game118.8
112.3Allowed / game112.1
45.9FG%48.1
37.93P%35.7
46.2Rebounds / game46.3
34−33Season record48−19
8−2Last 108−2
Antonio Reeves · Liam McNeeley
PJ Hall · Tidjane SalaunOutDavid Jones Garcia · Dylan Harper
Emanuel Miller

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHA chance · SA chance
Our model fair31.1%69.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHACharlotte Hornets+22231%————
SASan Antonio Spurs−22269%————
SpreadSA by 5.6
CHACharlotte Hornets+5.6our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−5.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.2
Over226.2our total————
Under226.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 5.6 expected
Charlotte Hornets by 47 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%
← CHA wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more55%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more40%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more26%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.2 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.529%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHA·SA
Mar 11 at SAC
last game
Mar 12 vs DEN
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 14, 5:00 PM ET
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHALiam McNeeley · left ankle; sprainOut
CHAPJ Hall · g league - two-wayOut
CHATidjane Salaun · left calf; strainOut
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SADylan Harper · right calf; contusionOut
SAEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 67+ games
CHA·SA
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.54
115.7
points / game
118.8
112.3
points allowed / game
112.1
34−33
season record
48−19
14−17
home record
25−7
20−16
away record
23−12
W2
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
8−2
45.9
FG%
48.1
37.9
3P%
35.7
46.2
rebounds / game
46.3
26.5
assists / game
27.4
15.6
turnovers / game
13.6
45.6
points in paint / game
50.6

Rating Trend

CHA · SA · 130 days
Charlotte HornetsSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · SA 1−8
Jan 31at CHACHA 111 − 106
Mar 14, 2025at SACHA 145 − 134
Feb 7, 2025at CHACHA 117 − 116
Jan 19, 2024at CHACHA 124 − 120
Jan 12, 2024at SASA 135 − 99
Feb 15, 2023at CHACHA 120 − 110
Oct 19, 2022at SACHA 129 − 102
Mar 5, 2022at CHACHA 123 − 117
Dec 15, 2021at SACHA 131 − 115

CHA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Mar 11at SAC117 − 109W
Mar 10at POR103 − 101W
Mar 8at PHX99 − 111L
Mar 6vs MIA120 − 128L
Mar 4at BOS118 − 89W
Mar 3vs DAL117 − 90W
Feb 28vs POR109 − 93W
Feb 26at IND133 − 109W
Feb 24at CHI131 − 99W
Feb 22at WSH129 − 112W

SA · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Mar 12vs DEN131 − 136L
Mar 10vs BOS125 − 116W
Mar 8vs HOU145 − 120W
Mar 6vs LAC116 − 112W
Mar 5vs DET121 − 106W
Mar 3at PHI131 − 91W
Mar 1at NY89 − 114L
Feb 26at BKN126 − 110W
Feb 25at TOR110 − 107W
Feb 23at DET114 − 103W