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Hornets at Kings

NBA · Wednesday, Mar 11 · 9:00 PM CT · Golden 1 Center · Final CHA 117 – SAC 109
← NBA / Mar 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHA30293127117
SAC34282324109
Team box
CHA·SAC
41-90
field goals
45-83
19-40
3-pointers
8-25
16-17
free throws
11-14
41
rebounds
35
29
assists
24
16
turnovers
14
44
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
DeMar DeRozanSAC413946
LaMelo BallCHA313065
Miles BridgesCHA312625
Kon KnueppelCHA342473
Brandon MillerCHA332035
Nique CliffordSAC411848

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SAC +12
CHA +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SAC 9 · CHA 12lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHA 62%, SAC 38% · Updated Mar 11

Expected margin
CHA by 5.1
Expected score
CHA 116.6 – 111.5 SAC
Expected total
228.2
HornetsThe matchupKings
−161Our fair odds+161
116.6Expected points111.5
−0.09Power rating−0.75
115.7Points / game110.7
112.3Allowed / game120.9
45.9FG%46.3
37.83P%33.5
46.3Rebounds / game42.0
33−33Season record16−50
7−3Last 104−6
Antonio Reeves · Grant Williams
Liam McNeeley · PJ Hall
Tidjane SalaunOut (5 each)De'Andre Hunter · Devin Carter
Domantas Sabonis · Dylan Cardwell
Isaiah Stevens

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHA chance · SAC chance
Our model fair61.7%38.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHACharlotte Hornets−16162%————
SACSacramento Kings+16138%————
SpreadCHA by 5.1
CHACharlotte Hornets−5.1our margin————
SACSacramento Kings+5.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.2
Over228.2our total————
Under228.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Charlotte Hornets by 5.1 expected
Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%
← CHA wins bySAC wins by →
Charlotte Hornets wins by 5 or more54%
Charlotte Hornets wins by 10 or more39%
Charlotte Hornets wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.2 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.568%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.529%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted
Sacramento Kings
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GKillian Hayesstarted
GNique Cliffordstarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted
CMaxime Raynaudstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHA·SAC
Mar 10 at POR
last game
Mar 10 vs IND
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 11, 5:00 PM ET
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; injury managementOut
CHALiam McNeeley · left ankle; sprainOut
CHAPJ Hall · g league - two-wayOut
CHATidjane Salaun · left calf; strainOut
Sacramento Kings
SACDe'Andre Hunter · left eye; retinal repairOut
SACDevin Carter · right calf; sorenessOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; meniscus repairOut
SACDylan Cardwell · left ankle; sprainOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left ankle; sprainOut
SACMalik Monk · right ankle; sorenessOut
SACRussell Westbrook · right quadriceps; contusionOut
SACZach LaVine · right 5th finger; tendon repairOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 66+ games
CHA·SAC
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.75
115.7
points / game
110.7
112.3
points allowed / game
120.9
33−33
season record
16−50
14−17
home record
11−22
19−16
away record
5−28
W1
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
4−6
45.9
FG%
46.3
37.8
3P%
33.5
46.3
rebounds / game
42.0
26.5
assists / game
25.3
15.6
turnovers / game
14.1
45.6
points in paint / game
50.0

Rating Trend

CHA · SAC · 127 days
Charlotte HornetsSacramento Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · SAC 5−3
Apr 4, 2025at CHASAC 125 − 102
Feb 24, 2025at SACSAC 130 − 88
Jan 10, 2024at CHASAC 123 − 98
Jan 2, 2024at SACCHA 111 − 104
Dec 19, 2022at SACCHA 125 − 119
Oct 31, 2022at CHASAC 115 − 108
Dec 10, 2021at CHACHA 124 − 123
Nov 5, 2021at SACSAC 140 − 110

CHA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Mar 10at POR103 − 101W
Mar 8at PHX99 − 111L
Mar 6vs MIA120 − 128L
Mar 4at BOS118 − 89W
Mar 3vs DAL117 − 90W
Feb 28vs POR109 − 93W
Feb 26at IND133 − 109W
Feb 24at CHI131 − 99W
Feb 22at WSH129 − 112W
Feb 20vs CLE113 − 118L

SAC · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Mar 10vs IND114 − 109W
Mar 8vs CHI126 − 110W
Mar 5vs NO123 − 133L
Mar 3vs PHX103 − 114L
Mar 1at LAL104 − 128L
Feb 26at DAL130 − 121W
Feb 25at HOU97 − 128L
Feb 23at MEM123 − 114W
Feb 21at SA122 − 139L
Feb 19vs ORL94 − 131L