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Pacers at Kings

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 10 · 9:00 PM CT · Golden 1 Center · Final IND 109 – SAC 114
← NBA / Mar 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND25342327109
SAC24183042114
Team box
IND·SAC
38-93
field goals
41-90
13-43
3-pointers
7-20
20-22
free throws
25-30
48
rebounds
52
29
assists
22
15
turnovers
11
42
points in paint
64
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Aaron NesmithIND352943
Devin CarterSAC162453
Maxime RaynaudSAC3418112
Obi ToppinIND151751
Russell WestbrookSAC251679
Kam JonesIND271449

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SAC +20
IND +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SAC 7 · IND 20lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 53%, SAC 47% · Updated Mar 10

Expected margin
IND by 0.6
Expected score
IND 117.4 – 116.8 SAC
Expected total
234.2
PacersThe matchupKings
−113Our fair odds+113
117.4Expected points116.8
−0.45Power rating−0.75
111.4Points / game110.6
120.0Allowed / game121.1
45.1FG%46.3
34.83P%33.4
42.2Rebounds / game41.8
15−49Season record15−50
1−9Last 103−7
Ivica Zubac · Johnny Furphy
Pascal Siakam · T.J. McConnell
Tyrese HaliburtonOut (5 each)De'Andre Hunter · Domantas Sabonis
Dylan Cardwell · Isaiah Stevens
Keegan Murray

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · SAC chance
Our model fair53.1%46.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers−11353%————
SACSacramento Kings+11347%————
SpreadIND by 0.6
INDIndiana Pacers−0.6our margin————
SACSacramento Kings+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.2
Over234.2our total————
Under234.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indiana Pacers by 0.6 expected
Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%
← IND wins bySAC wins by →
Indiana Pacers wins by 5 or more41%
Indiana Pacers wins by 10 or more28%
Indiana Pacers wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

234.2 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.568%
Total over 234.548%
Total over 244.530%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GKam Jonesstarted
FObi Toppinstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
CJay Huffstarted
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GNique Cliffordstarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted
CMaxime Raynaudstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·SAC
Mar 8 at POR
last game
Mar 8 vs CHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 10, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDIvica Zubac · left ankle; sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl; tearOut
INDPascal Siakam · right knee; sprainOut
INDT.J. McConnell · right hamstring; sorenessOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tornOut
INDAndrew Nembhard · lower back; soreness; neck sorenessDoubtful
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayQuestionable
INDJalen Slawson · g league - two-wayQuestionable
INDTaelon Peter · g league - two-wayQuestionable
INDJarace Walker · right ankle; sprain; mid back sorenessProbable
Sacramento Kings
SACDe'Andre Hunter · left eye; retinal repairOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; meniscus repairOut
SACDylan Cardwell · left ankle; sprainOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left ankle; sprainOut
SACZach LaVine · right 5th finger; tendon repairOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 64+ games
IND·SAC
−0.45
rating (0 = average)
−0.75
111.4
points / game
110.6
120.0
points allowed / game
121.1
15−49
season record
15−50
10−22
home record
10−22
5−27
away record
5−28
L9
streak
W1
1−9
last 10
3−7
45.1
FG%
46.3
34.8
3P%
33.4
42.2
rebounds / game
41.8
26.5
assists / game
25.4
14.4
turnovers / game
14.2
45.8
points in paint / game
49.8

Rating Trend

IND · SAC · 126 days
Indiana PacersSacramento Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · SAC 3−6
Dec 8, 2025at INDIND 116 − 105
Mar 31, 2025at INDIND 111 − 109
Dec 22, 2024at SACIND 122 − 95
Feb 2, 2024at INDSAC 133 − 122
Jan 18, 2024at SACIND 126 − 121
Feb 3, 2023at INDIND 107 − 104
Nov 30, 2022at SACSAC 137 − 114
Mar 23, 2022at INDSAC 110 − 109
Nov 7, 2021at SACIND 94 − 91

IND · Last 10

1−9 · streak L9
Mar 8at POR111 − 131L
Mar 6at LAL117 − 128L
Mar 4at LAC107 − 130L
Mar 1vs MEM106 − 125L
Feb 26vs CHA109 − 133L
Feb 24vs PHI114 − 135L
Feb 22vs DAL130 − 134L
Feb 20at WSH118 − 131L
Feb 19at WSH105 − 112L
Feb 11at BKN115 − 110W

SAC · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Mar 8vs CHI126 − 110W
Mar 5vs NO123 − 133L
Mar 3vs PHX103 − 114L
Mar 1at LAL104 − 128L
Feb 26at DAL130 − 121W
Feb 25at HOU97 − 128L
Feb 23at MEM123 − 114W
Feb 21at SA122 − 139L
Feb 19vs ORL94 − 131L
Feb 11at UTAH93 − 121L