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Pacers at Trail Blazers

NBA · Sunday, Mar 8 · 8:00 PM CT · Moda Center · Final IND 111 – POR 131
← NBA / Mar 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND30222831111
POR30393131131
Team box
IND·POR
41-95
field goals
47-93
14-42
3-pointers
15-41
15-24
free throws
22-27
38
rebounds
53
27
assists
29
12
turnovers
14
46
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Scoot HendersonPOR262836
Pascal SiakamIND322265
Jrue HolidayPOR252133
Jerami GrantPOR322121
Deni AvdijaPOR251858
Jay HuffIND221661

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
POR +24
IND +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: POR 24 · IND 4lead changes: 13

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 41%, POR 59% · Updated Mar 8

Expected margin
POR by 2.7
Expected score
POR 117.8 – 115.1 IND
Expected total
232.8
PacersThe matchupTrail Blazers
+142Our fair odds−142
115.1Expected points117.8
−0.39Power rating−0.20
111.4Points / game115.1
119.9Allowed / game118.1
45.1FG%45.1
34.83P%33.6
42.3Rebounds / game45.7
15−48Season record30−34
2−8Last 104−6
Ivica Zubac · Johnny Furphy
Tyrese HaliburtonOutDamian Lillard · Shaedon Sharpe

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · POR chance
Our model fair41.3%58.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+14241%————
PORPortland Trail Blazers−14259%————
SpreadPOR by 2.7
INDIndiana Pacers+2.7our margin————
PORPortland Trail Blazers−2.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.8
Over232.8our total————
Under232.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Portland Trail Blazers by 2.7 expected
Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%
← IND wins byPOR wins by →
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 5 or more48%
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 10 or more33%
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.8 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.550%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
CJay Huffstarted
Portland Trail Blazers
GJrue Holidaystarted
FJerami Grantstarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·POR
Mar 6 at LAL
last game
Mar 6 at HOU
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 8, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDIvica Zubac · left ankle; sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl; tearOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tornOut
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayDoubtful
INDAndrew Nembhard · neck and lower back; sorenessQuestionable
INDJalen Slawson · g league - two-wayQuestionable
INDTaelon Peter · g league - two-wayQuestionable
INDAaron Nesmith · right ankle; sprainProbable
INDPascal Siakam · left wrist; sprainProbable
Portland Trail Blazers
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORShaedon Sharpe · left fibula; stress reactionOut
PORCaleb Love · g league - two-wayQuestionable
PORChris Youngblood · g league - two-wayQuestionable
PORDeni Avdija · low back; injury managementQuestionable
PORJayson Kent · g league - two-wayQuestionable
PORKris Murray · illness; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 63+ games
IND·POR
−0.39
rating (0 = average)
−0.20
111.4
points / game
115.1
119.9
points allowed / game
118.1
15−48
season record
30−34
10−22
home record
16−15
5−26
away record
14−19
L8
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
4−6
45.1
FG%
45.1
34.8
3P%
33.6
42.3
rebounds / game
45.7
26.5
assists / game
24.7
14.4
turnovers / game
17.2
45.8
points in paint / game
48.2

Rating Trend

IND · POR · 124 days
Indiana PacersPortland Trail Blazers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · POR 5−3
Feb 4, 2025at PORPOR 112 − 89
Nov 27, 2024at INDIND 121 − 114
Jan 19, 2024at PORPOR 118 − 115
Nov 27, 2023at INDPOR 114 − 110
Jan 6, 2023at INDIND 108 − 99
Dec 4, 2022at PORPOR 116 − 100
Mar 20, 2022at INDIND 129 − 98
Nov 5, 2021at PORPOR 110 − 106

IND · Last 10

2−8 · streak L8
Mar 6at LAL117 − 128L
Mar 4at LAC107 − 130L
Mar 1vs MEM106 − 125L
Feb 26vs CHA109 − 133L
Feb 24vs PHI114 − 135L
Feb 22vs DAL130 − 134L
Feb 20at WSH118 − 131L
Feb 19at WSH105 − 112L
Feb 11at BKN115 − 110W
Feb 10at NY137 − 134W

POR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Mar 6at HOU99 − 106L
Mar 4at MEM122 − 114W
Mar 1at ATL101 − 135L
Feb 28at CHA93 − 109L
Feb 26at CHI121 − 112W
Feb 24vs MIN121 − 124L
Feb 22at PHX92 − 77W
Feb 20vs DEN103 − 157L
Feb 12at UTAH135 − 119W
Feb 11at MIN109 − 133L