bayesRatings

Hornets at Suns

NBA · Sunday, Mar 8 · 9:00 PM CT · Mortgage Matchup Center · Final CHA 99 – PHX 111
← NBA / Mar 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHA3028192299
PHX28322130111
Team box
CHA·PHX
37-88
field goals
36-79
15-45
3-pointers
16-41
10-15
free throws
23-26
41
rebounds
40
24
assists
24
13
turnovers
8
40
points in paint
34
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Devin BookerPHX3530310
Collin GillespiePHX362454
Jalen GreenPHX302442
LaMelo BallCHA332276
Miles BridgesCHA291671
Rasheer FlemingPHX231620

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHX +16
CHA +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHX 16 · CHA 8lead changes: 15

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHA 41%, PHX 59% · Updated Mar 8

Expected margin
PHX by 2.2
Expected score
PHX 111.9 – 109.7 CHA
Expected total
221.6
HornetsThe matchupSuns
+143Our fair odds−143
109.7Expected points111.9
−0.14Power rating+0.05
116.2Points / game112.1
112.5Allowed / game111.2
46.1FG%45.3
37.83P%35.7
46.3Rebounds / game43.4
32−32Season record36−27
7−3Last 105−5
Antonio Reeves · Liam McNeeley
PJ Hall · Tidjane Salaun
Tosan EvbuomwanOutDillon Brooks · Jordan Goodwin
Mark Williams

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHA chance · PHX chance
Our model fair41.2%58.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHACharlotte Hornets+14341%————
PHXPhoenix Suns−14359%————
SpreadPHX by 2.2
CHACharlotte Hornets+2.2our margin————
PHXPhoenix Suns−2.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.6
Over221.6our total————
Under221.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Phoenix Suns by 2.2 expected
Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%
← CHA wins byPHX wins by →
Phoenix Suns wins by 5 or more46%
Phoenix Suns wins by 10 or more32%
Phoenix Suns wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

221.6 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.569%
Total over 221.550%
Total over 231.530%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
GJalen Greenstarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FOso Ighodarostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHA·PHX
Mar 6 vs MIA
last game
Mar 6 vs NO
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 8, 5:00 PM ET
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHALiam McNeeley · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAPJ Hall · g league - two-wayOut
CHATidjane Salaun · left calf; strainOut
CHATosan Evbuomwan · g league - two-wayOut
Phoenix Suns
PHXDillon Brooks · left hand; fractureOut
PHXJordan Goodwin · left calf; strainOut
PHXMark Williams · left foot third metatarsal; stress reactionOut
PHXGrayson Allen · right knee; injury managementProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 63+ games
CHA·PHX
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
116.2
points / game
112.1
112.5
points allowed / game
111.2
32−32
season record
36−27
14−17
home record
21−13
18−15
away record
15−14
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
5−5
46.1
FG%
45.3
37.8
3P%
35.7
46.3
rebounds / game
43.4
26.6
assists / game
24.7
15.6
turnovers / game
14.9
45.9
points in paint / game
43.3

Rating Trend

CHA · PHX · 124 days
Charlotte HornetsPhoenix Suns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · PHX 7−1
Jan 12, 2025at PHXPHX 120 − 113
Jan 7, 2025at CHACHA 115 − 104
Mar 15, 2024at CHAPHX 107 − 96
Dec 29, 2023at PHXPHX 133 − 119
Mar 1, 2023at CHAPHX 105 − 91
Jan 24, 2023at PHXPHX 128 − 97
Jan 2, 2022at CHAPHX 133 − 99
Dec 19, 2021at PHXPHX 137 − 106

CHA · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Mar 6vs MIA120 − 128L
Mar 4at BOS118 − 89W
Mar 3vs DAL117 − 90W
Feb 28vs POR109 − 93W
Feb 26at IND133 − 109W
Feb 24at CHI131 − 99W
Feb 22at WSH129 − 112W
Feb 20vs CLE113 − 118L
Feb 19vs HOU101 − 105L
Feb 11vs ATL110 − 107W

PHX · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 6vs NO118 − 116W
Mar 5vs CHI103 − 105L
Mar 3at SAC114 − 103W
Feb 26vs LAL113 − 110W
Feb 24vs BOS81 − 97L
Feb 22vs POR77 − 92L
Feb 21vs ORL113 − 110W
Feb 19at SA94 − 121L
Feb 11vs OKC109 − 136L
Feb 10vs DAL120 − 111W