bayesRatings

Clippers at Pelicans

NBA · Thursday, Mar 19 · 7:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final LAC 99 – NO 105
← NBA / Mar 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAC2626321599
NO28273218105
Team box
LAC·NO
35-76
field goals
37-78
10-32
3-pointers
13-34
19-32
free throws
18-22
39
rebounds
40
20
assists
21
16
turnovers
16
46
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Trey Murphy IIINO352752
Derrick Jones Jr.LAC342243
Saddiq BeyNO362066
John CollinsLAC281881
Bogdan BogdanovicLAC271611
Zion WilliamsonNO331552

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +8
LAC +8
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 8 · LAC 5lead changes: 14

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAC 64%, NO 36% · Updated Mar 19

Expected margin
LAC by 4.9
Expected score
LAC 117.2 – 112.2 NO
Expected total
229.4
ClippersThe matchupPelicans
−178Our fair odds+178
117.2Expected points112.2
+0.23Power rating−0.55
113.4Points / game115.8
112.8Allowed / game119.6
48.4FG%46.7
35.93P%34.6
40.7Rebounds / game44.2
34−35Season record24−46
6−4Last 106−4
Bennedict Mathurin · Bradley Beal
Darius Garland · Yanic Konan NiederhauserOutBryce McGowens · Dejounte Murray
Hunter Dickinson · Josh Oduro
Trey Alexander

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAC chance · NO chance
Our model fair64.0%36.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LACLA Clippers−17864%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+17836%————
SpreadLAC by 4.9
LACLA Clippers−4.9our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+4.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.4
Over229.4our total————
Under229.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

LA Clippers by 4.9 expected
LA Clippers by 46 points: <1%LA Clippers by 45 points: <1%LA Clippers by 44 points: <1%LA Clippers by 43 points: <1%LA Clippers by 42 points: <1%LA Clippers by 41 points: <1%LA Clippers by 40 points: <1%LA Clippers by 39 points: <1%LA Clippers by 38 points: <1%LA Clippers by 37 points: <1%LA Clippers by 36 points: <1%LA Clippers by 35 points: <1%LA Clippers by 34 points: <1%LA Clippers by 33 points: <1%LA Clippers by 32 points: 1%LA Clippers by 31 points: 1%LA Clippers by 30 points: 1%LA Clippers by 29 points: 1%LA Clippers by 28 points: 1%LA Clippers by 27 points: 1%LA Clippers by 26 points: 1%LA Clippers by 25 points: 1%LA Clippers by 24 points: 1%LA Clippers by 23 points: 1%LA Clippers by 22 points: 1%LA Clippers by 21 points: 1%LA Clippers by 20 points: 1%LA Clippers by 19 points: 2%LA Clippers by 18 points: 2%LA Clippers by 17 points: 2%LA Clippers by 16 points: 2%LA Clippers by 15 points: 2%LA Clippers by 14 points: 2%LA Clippers by 13 points: 3%LA Clippers by 12 points: 3%LA Clippers by 11 points: 3%LA Clippers by 10 points: 3%LA Clippers by 9 points: 3%LA Clippers by 8 points: 3%LA Clippers by 7 points: 3%LA Clippers by 6 points: 3%LA Clippers by 5 points: 3%LA Clippers by 4 points: 3%LA Clippers by 3 points: 3%LA Clippers by 2 points: 2%LA Clippers by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%
← LAC wins byNO wins by →
LA Clippers wins by 5 or more54%
LA Clippers wins by 10 or more38%
LA Clippers wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.4 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
LA Clippers
GKris Dunnstarted
GJordan Millerstarted
FJohn Collinsstarted
FDerrick Jones Jr.started
CBrook Lopezstarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CYves Missistarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAC·NO
Mar 18 at NO
last game
Mar 18 vs LAC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 19, 5:00 PM ET
LA Clippers
LACBennedict Mathurin · right toe; injury recoveryOut
LACBradley Beal · left hip; fractureOut
LACDarius Garland · left toe; injury managementOut
LACYanic Konan Niederhauser · right lisfranc ligament; tearOut
LACKawhi Leonard · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
New Orleans Pelicans
NOBryce McGowens · right small toe; fractureOut
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; injury managementOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJosh Oduro · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 69+ games
LAC·NO
+0.23
rating (0 = average)
−0.55
113.4
points / game
115.8
112.8
points allowed / game
119.6
34−35
season record
24−46
19−15
home record
15−21
15−20
away record
9−25
L3
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
48.4
FG%
46.7
35.9
3P%
34.6
40.7
rebounds / game
44.2
23.6
assists / game
25.2
14.3
turnovers / game
14.4
49.4
points in paint / game
57.5

Rating Trend

LAC · NO · 135 days
LA ClippersNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 5−5
Mar 18at NONO 124 − 109
Mar 1at LACLAC 137 − 117
Oct 31, 2025at LACLAC 126 − 124
Apr 2, 2025at LACLAC 114 − 98
Mar 11, 2025at NONO 127 − 120
Dec 30, 2024at NOLAC 116 − 113
Mar 15, 2024at NONO 112 − 104
Feb 7, 2024at LACNO 117 − 106
Jan 5, 2024at NOLAC 111 − 95
Nov 24, 2023at LACNO 116 − 106

LAC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Mar 18at NO109 − 124L
Mar 16vs SA115 − 119L
Mar 14vs SAC109 − 118L
Mar 13vs CHI119 − 108W
Mar 11vs MIN153 − 128W
Mar 9vs NY126 − 118W
Mar 7at MEM123 − 120W
Mar 6at SA112 − 116L
Mar 4vs IND130 − 107W
Mar 2at GS114 − 101W

NO · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Mar 18vs LAC124 − 109W
Mar 16vs DAL129 − 111W
Mar 13at HOU105 − 107L
Mar 11vs TOR122 − 111W
Mar 8vs WSH138 − 118W
Mar 6at PHX116 − 118L
Mar 5at SAC133 − 123W
Mar 3at LAL101 − 110L
Mar 1at LAC117 − 137L
Feb 28at UTAH115 − 105W