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Hawks at Mavericks

NBA · Wednesday, Mar 18 · 7:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final ATL 135 – DAL 120
← NBA / Mar 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL37303434135
DAL30262638120
Team box
ATL·DAL
55-102
field goals
42-86
14-35
3-pointers
11-28
11-14
free throws
25-29
42
rebounds
43
36
assists
26
11
turnovers
19
72
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Daniel GaffordDAL222480
CJ McCollumATL282407
P.J. WashingtonDAL302391
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL302212
Dyson DanielsATL321964
Jalen JohnsonATL3717119

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +21
ATL +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 0 · ATL 21lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 59%, DAL 41% · Updated Mar 18

Expected margin
ATL by 3.7
Expected score
ATL 120.4 – 116.8 DAL
Expected total
237.2
HawksThe matchupMavericks
−142Our fair odds+142
120.4Expected points116.8
+0.09Power rating−0.46
117.8Points / game113.2
116.6Allowed / game118.2
47.2FG%46.9
36.73P%33.8
43.5Rebounds / game44.9
37−31Season record23−46
10−0Last 102−8
Asa Newell · Keshon Gilbert
RayJ DennisOut (3 each)Brandon Williams · Dereck Lively II
Kyrie Irving

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · DAL chance
Our model fair58.6%41.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks−14259%————
DALDallas Mavericks+14241%————
SpreadATL by 3.7
ATLAtlanta Hawks−3.7our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks+3.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.2
Over237.2our total————
Under237.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 3.7 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%
← ATL wins byDAL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more50%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more35%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

237.2 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.567%
Total over 237.548%
Total over 247.530%
Total from 228 to 24738%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
GRyan Nembhardstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·DAL
Mar 16 vs ORL
last game
Mar 16 at NO
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 18, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLAsa Newell · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLKeshon Gilbert · g league - two-wayOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut
ATLJonathan Kuminga · left knee; injury managementQuestionable
Dallas Mavericks
DALBrandon Williams · head; concussion protocolOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALCaleb Martin · right plantar fascia; sorenessQuestionable
DALDaniel Gafford · illness; illnessQuestionable
DALJohn Poulakidas · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALTyler Smith · g league - two-wayQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
ATL·DAL
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.46
117.8
points / game
113.2
116.6
points allowed / game
118.2
37−31
season record
23−46
19−16
home record
14−20
18−15
away record
9−26
W10
streak
L1
10−0
last 10
2−8
47.2
FG%
46.9
36.7
3P%
33.8
43.5
rebounds / game
44.9
30.4
assists / game
25.1
14.2
turnovers / game
14.8
51.9
points in paint / game
53.2

Rating Trend

ATL · DAL · 134 days
Atlanta HawksDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DAL 5−4
Mar 10at ATLATL 124 − 112
Apr 2, 2025at DALDAL 120 − 118
Nov 25, 2024at ATLDAL 129 − 119
Apr 4, 2024at DALDAL 109 − 95
Jan 26, 2024at ATLDAL 148 − 143
Apr 2, 2023at ATLATL 132 − 130
Jan 18, 2023at DALATL 130 − 122
Feb 6, 2022at DALDAL 103 − 94
Oct 21, 2021at ATLATL 113 − 87

ATL · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Mar 16vs ORL124 − 112W
Mar 14vs MIL122 − 99W
Mar 12vs BKN108 − 97W
Mar 10vs DAL124 − 112W
Mar 7vs PHI125 − 116W
Mar 4at MIL131 − 113W
Mar 1vs POR135 − 101W
Feb 26vs WSH126 − 96W
Feb 24vs WSH119 − 98W
Feb 22vs BKN115 − 104W

DAL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Mar 16at NO111 − 129L
Mar 15at CLE130 − 120W
Mar 13vs CLE105 − 138L
Mar 12at MEM120 − 112W
Mar 10at ATL112 − 124L
Mar 8at TOR92 − 122L
Mar 6at BOS100 − 120L
Mar 5at ORL114 − 115L
Mar 3at CHA90 − 117L
Mar 1vs OKC87 − 100L