bayesRatings

Nets at Hawks

NBA · Thursday, Mar 12 · 6:30 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final BKN 97 – ATL 108
← NBA / Mar 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BKN2129291897
ATL30272526108
Team box
BKN·ATL
34-72
field goals
35-89
12-35
3-pointers
12-40
17-22
free throws
26-35
39
rebounds
51
19
assists
22
20
turnovers
12
42
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Josh MinottBKN242431
Jalen JohnsonATL362199
Zaccharie RisacherATL311991
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL361822
CJ McCollumATL301442
Onyeka OkongwuATL301390

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +15
BKN +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 15 · BKN 2lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BKN 26%, ATL 74% · Updated Mar 12

Expected margin
ATL by 10.3
Expected score
ATL 118.3 – 108.0 BKN
Expected total
226.3
NetsThe matchupHawks
+289Our fair odds−289
108.0Expected points118.3
−0.89Power rating+0.01
107.0Points / game117.8
115.9Allowed / game117.2
44.6FG%47.3
34.43P%36.8
40.1Rebounds / game43.2
17−48Season record34−31
2−8Last 108−2
Day'Ron Sharpe · Egor Demin
Michael Porter Jr. · Nolan Traore
Ziaire WilliamsOutKeshon Gilbert

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BKN chance · ATL chance
Our model fair25.7%74.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BKNBrooklyn Nets+28926%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−28974%————
SpreadATL by 10.3
BKNBrooklyn Nets+10.3our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−10.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.3
Over226.3our total————
Under226.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 10.3 expected
Brooklyn Nets by 52 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 51 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 50 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 49 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 48 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 47 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 46 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 45 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 44 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 47 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 48 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 49 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 50 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 51 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 52 points: <1%
← BKN wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more67%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more52%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more37%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.3 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Brooklyn Nets
GDrake Powellstarted
GBen Sarafstarted
FNoah Clowneystarted
FDanny Wolfstarted
CNic Claxtonstarted
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
FCorey Kispertstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BKN·ATL
Mar 10 vs DET
last game
Mar 10 vs DAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 12, 5:00 PM ET
Brooklyn Nets
BKNDay'Ron Sharpe · left thumb; sprainOut
BKNEgor Demin · left plantar fascia; injury managementOut
BKNMichael Porter Jr. · right ankle; sprainOut
BKNNolan Traore · restOut
BKNZiaire Williams · n/a; illnessOut
Atlanta Hawks
ATLKeshon Gilbert · g league - two-wayOut
ATLDyson Daniels · left great toe; sprainQuestionable
ATLJonathan Kuminga · left knee; bone bruiseQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 65+ games
BKN·ATL
−0.89
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
107.0
points / game
117.8
115.9
points allowed / game
117.2
17−48
season record
34−31
9−23
home record
16−16
8−25
away record
18−15
L1
streak
W7
2−8
last 10
8−2
44.6
FG%
47.3
34.4
3P%
36.8
40.1
rebounds / game
43.2
25.6
assists / game
30.5
15.8
turnovers / game
14.3
44.0
points in paint / game
52.0

Rating Trend

BKN · ATL · 128 days
Brooklyn NetsAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 5−5
Feb 22at ATLATL 115 − 104
Oct 29, 2025at BKNATL 117 − 112
Apr 10, 2025at BKNATL 133 − 109
Mar 16, 2025at BKNBKN 122 − 114
Oct 23, 2024at ATLATL 120 − 116
Mar 2, 2024at BKNBKN 114 − 102
Feb 29, 2024at BKNBKN 124 − 97
Dec 6, 2023at ATLBKN 114 − 113
Nov 22, 2023at ATLATL 147 − 145
Mar 31, 2023at BKNBKN 124 − 107

BKN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Mar 10vs DET100 − 138L
Mar 9vs MEM126 − 115W
Mar 7at DET107 − 105W
Mar 5at MIA110 − 126L
Mar 3at MIA98 − 124L
Mar 1vs CLE102 − 106L
Feb 27at BOS111 − 148L
Feb 26vs SA110 − 126L
Feb 24vs DAL114 − 123L
Feb 22at ATL104 − 115L

ATL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W7
Mar 10vs DAL124 − 112W
Mar 7vs PHI125 − 116W
Mar 4at MIL131 − 113W
Mar 1vs POR135 − 101W
Feb 26vs WSH126 − 96W
Feb 24vs WSH119 − 98W
Feb 22vs BKN115 − 104W
Feb 20vs MIA97 − 128L
Feb 19at PHI117 − 107W
Feb 11at CHA107 − 110L