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Magic at Hawks

NBA · Monday, Mar 16 · 6:00 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final ORL 112 – ATL 124
← NBA / Mar 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ORL21293329112
ATL34333720124
Team box
ORL·ATL
40-95
field goals
43-93
14-43
3-pointers
16-40
18-23
free throws
22-29
40
rebounds
54
20
assists
33
11
turnovers
14
46
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL374175
Jalen JohnsonATL37241513
Paolo BancheroORL3318103
Desmond BaneORL311824
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL281731
Dyson DanielsATL3615123

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +29
ORL +29
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 29 · ORL 2lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ORL 48%, ATL 52% · Updated Mar 16

Expected margin
ATL by 0.6
Expected score
ATL 114.8 – 114.2 ORL
Expected total
229.0
MagicThe matchupHawks
+107Our fair odds−107
114.2Expected points114.8
+0.12Power rating+0.01
115.7Points / game117.7
114.1Allowed / game116.6
46.6FG%47.2
34.13P%36.7
43.8Rebounds / game43.4
38−28Season record36−31
8−2Last 109−1
Alex Morales · Anthony Black
Colin Castleton · Franz Wagner
Jonathan IsaacOutKeshon Gilbert · RayJ Dennis

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ORL chance · ATL chance
Our model fair48.4%51.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ORLOrlando Magic+10748%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−10752%————
SpreadATL by 0.6
ORLOrlando Magic+0.6our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.0
Over229.0our total————
Under229.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 0.6 expected
Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%
← ORL wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more42%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more28%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.0 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.568%
Total over 229.548%
Total over 239.529%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FTristan da Silvastarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ORL·ATL
Mar 14 at MIA
last game
Mar 14 vs MIL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 16, 5:00 PM ET
Orlando Magic
ORLAlex Morales · g league - two-wayOut
ORLAnthony Black · left lateral abdominal; strainOut
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLFranz Wagner · left high ankle; sprain injury managementOut
ORLJonathan Isaac · left knee; sprainOut
Atlanta Hawks
ATLKeshon Gilbert · g league - two-wayOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut
ATLAsa Newell · g league - on assignmentQuestionable
ATLJonathan Kuminga · left knee; injury managementQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 66+ games
ORL·ATL
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
115.7
points / game
117.7
114.1
points allowed / game
116.6
38−28
season record
36−31
22−12
home record
18−16
16−16
away record
18−15
W7
streak
W9
8−2
last 10
9−1
46.6
FG%
47.2
34.1
3P%
36.7
43.8
rebounds / game
43.4
26.6
assists / game
30.3
13.7
turnovers / game
14.2
51.9
points in paint / game
52.0

Rating Trend

ORL · ATL · 132 days
Orlando MagicAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 7−3
Nov 4, 2025at ATLATL 127 − 112
Oct 24, 2025at ORLATL 111 − 107
Apr 13, 2025at ATLATL 117 − 105
Apr 8, 2025at ORLORL 119 − 112
Feb 20, 2025at ATLORL 114 − 108
Feb 10, 2025at ORLATL 112 − 106
Feb 25, 2024at ATLATL 109 − 92
Jan 17, 2024at ATLATL 106 − 104
Jan 7, 2024at ORLORL 117 − 110
Nov 9, 2023at ORLATL 120 − 119

ORL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W7
Mar 14at MIA121 − 117W
Mar 12vs WSH136 − 131W
Mar 11vs CLE128 − 122W
Mar 8at MIL130 − 91W
Mar 7at MIN119 − 92W
Mar 5vs DAL115 − 114W
Mar 3vs WSH126 − 109W
Mar 1vs DET92 − 106L
Feb 26vs HOU108 − 113L
Feb 24at LAL110 − 109W

ATL · Last 10

9−1 · streak W9
Mar 14vs MIL122 − 99W
Mar 12vs BKN108 − 97W
Mar 10vs DAL124 − 112W
Mar 7vs PHI125 − 116W
Mar 4at MIL131 − 113W
Mar 1vs POR135 − 101W
Feb 26vs WSH126 − 96W
Feb 24vs WSH119 − 98W
Feb 22vs BKN115 − 104W
Feb 20vs MIA97 − 128L