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Magic at Heat

NBA · Saturday, Mar 14 · 7:00 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final ORL 121 – MIA 117
← NBA / Mar 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ORL41302723121
MIA27282834117
Team box
ORL·MIA
44-89
field goals
41-88
10-32
3-pointers
12-38
23-25
free throws
23-28
49
rebounds
32
26
assists
25
20
turnovers
11
54
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Paolo BancheroORL372787
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA302227
Desmond BaneORL352144
Bam AdebayoMIA382071
Norman PowellMIA312013
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL351582

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +22
ORL +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 1 · ORL 22lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ORL 44%, MIA 56% · Updated Mar 14

Expected margin
MIA by 2.6
Expected score
MIA 113.6 – 111.0 ORL
Expected total
224.7
MagicThe matchupHeat
+127Our fair odds−127
111.0Expected points113.6
+0.12Power rating+0.19
115.6Points / game120.5
114.0Allowed / game116.5
46.5FG%46.5
34.13P%35.8
43.8Rebounds / game47.3
37−28Season record38−29
8−2Last 108−2
Alex Morales · Anthony Black
Colin Castleton · Franz Wagner
Jonathan IsaacOutAndrew Wiggins · Nikola Jovic
Terry Rozier

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ORL chance · MIA chance
Our model fair44.1%55.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ORLOrlando Magic+12744%————
MIAMiami Heat−12756%————
SpreadMIA by 2.6
ORLOrlando Magic+2.6our margin————
MIAMiami Heat−2.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.7
Over224.7our total————
Under224.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 2.6 expected
Orlando Magic by 44 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%
← ORL wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more47%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more33%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.7 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.570%
Total over 224.550%
Total over 234.530%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FTristan da Silvastarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started
Miami Heat
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GTyler Herrostarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
CKel'el Warestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ORL·MIA
Mar 12 vs WSH
last game
Mar 12 vs MIL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 14, 5:00 PM ET
Orlando Magic
ORLAlex Morales · g league - two-wayOut
ORLAnthony Black · left lateral abdominal; strainOut
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLFranz Wagner · left high ankle; sprain injury managementOut
ORLJonathan Isaac · left knee; sprainOut
Miami Heat
MIAAndrew Wiggins · left big toe; sesamoiditisOut
MIANikola Jovic · low back; injury managementOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayQuestionable
MIADru Smith · right hip; contusionProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 65+ games
ORL·MIA
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
115.6
points / game
120.5
114.0
points allowed / game
116.5
37−28
season record
38−29
22−12
home record
23−11
15−16
away record
15−18
W6
streak
W7
8−2
last 10
8−2
46.5
FG%
46.5
34.1
3P%
35.8
43.8
rebounds / game
47.3
26.6
assists / game
28.7
13.6
turnovers / game
14.0
51.8
points in paint / game
54.6

Rating Trend

ORL · MIA · 130 days
Orlando MagicMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 3−7
Jan 28at MIAORL 133 − 124
Dec 9, 2025at ORLORL 117 − 108
Dec 5, 2025at ORLORL 106 − 105
Oct 22, 2025at ORLORL 125 − 121
Jan 27, 2025at MIAMIA 125 − 119
Dec 26, 2024at ORLMIA 89 − 88
Dec 21, 2024at ORLORL 121 − 114
Oct 23, 2024at MIAORL 116 − 97
Feb 6, 2024at MIAMIA 121 − 95
Jan 21, 2024at ORLORL 105 − 87

ORL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W6
Mar 12vs WSH136 − 131W
Mar 11vs CLE128 − 122W
Mar 8at MIL130 − 91W
Mar 7at MIN119 − 92W
Mar 5vs DAL115 − 114W
Mar 3vs WSH126 − 109W
Mar 1vs DET92 − 106L
Feb 26vs HOU108 − 113L
Feb 24at LAL110 − 109W
Feb 22at LAC111 − 109W

MIA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W7
Mar 12vs MIL112 − 105W
Mar 10vs WSH150 − 129W
Mar 8vs DET121 − 110W
Mar 6at CHA128 − 120W
Mar 5vs BKN126 − 110W
Mar 3vs BKN124 − 98W
Feb 28vs HOU115 − 105W
Feb 26at PHI117 − 124L
Feb 24at MIL117 − 128L
Feb 21vs MEM136 − 120W