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Bucks at Heat

NBA · Thursday, Mar 12 · 6:30 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final MIL 105 – MIA 112
← NBA / Mar 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL21302628105
MIA31282627112
Team box
MIL·MIA
41-83
field goals
38-92
9-26
3-pointers
14-41
14-19
free throws
22-27
36
rebounds
53
26
assists
26
14
turnovers
12
52
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL293163
Pelle LarssonMIA382866
Bam AdebayoMIA352182
Bobby PortisMIL261951
Kasparas JakucionisMIA351872
Ryan RollinsMIL3316510

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +15
MIL +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 15 · MIL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 35%, MIA 65% · Updated Mar 12

Expected margin
MIA by 6.4
Expected score
MIA 117.5 – 111.0 MIL
Expected total
228.5
BucksThe matchupHeat
+182Our fair odds−182
111.0Expected points117.5
−0.24Power rating+0.19
111.1Points / game120.6
116.0Allowed / game116.7
47.8FG%46.6
38.73P%35.9
41.1Rebounds / game47.2
27−37Season record37−29
3−7Last 108−2
Alex Antetokounmpo · Cormac RyanOutAndrew Wiggins · Jahmir Young
Nikola Jovic · Norman Powell
Terry Rozier

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · MIA chance
Our model fair35.4%64.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+18235%————
MIAMiami Heat−18265%————
SpreadMIA by 6.4
MILMilwaukee Bucks+6.4our margin————
MIAMiami Heat−6.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.5
Over228.5our total————
Under228.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 6.4 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 48 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 3%Miami Heat by 13 points: 3%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 2%Miami Heat by 19 points: 2%Miami Heat by 20 points: 2%Miami Heat by 21 points: 2%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 30 points: 1%Miami Heat by 31 points: 1%Miami Heat by 32 points: 1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 47 points: <1%Miami Heat by 48 points: <1%
← MIL wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more57%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more42%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more28%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.5 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
FOusmane Diengstarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Miami Heat
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
GKasparas Jakucionisstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
CKel'el Warestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·MIA
Mar 10 vs PHX
last game
Mar 10 vs WSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 11, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILCormac Ryan · g league - two-wayOut
MILBobby Portis · back; thoracic spine contusionQuestionable
MILJericho Sims · right patella; tendonitisQuestionable
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right knee; synovitisQuestionable
Miami Heat
MIAAndrew Wiggins · left big toe; sesamoiditisOut
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIANikola Jovic · low back; injury managementOut
MIANorman Powell · right groin; strainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · left quadriceps; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 64+ games
MIL·MIA
−0.24
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
111.1
points / game
120.6
116.0
points allowed / game
116.7
27−37
season record
37−29
15−18
home record
22−11
12−19
away record
15−18
L2
streak
W6
3−7
last 10
8−2
47.8
FG%
46.6
38.7
3P%
35.9
41.1
rebounds / game
47.2
25.9
assists / game
28.7
14.6
turnovers / game
14.0
43.1
points in paint / game
54.8

Rating Trend

MIL · MIA · 128 days
Milwaukee BucksMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 3−7
Feb 24at MILMIL 128 − 117
Nov 26, 2025at MIAMIA 106 − 103
Apr 5, 2025at MIAMIL 121 − 115
Feb 23, 2025at MILMIL 120 − 113
Jan 23, 2025at MILMIL 125 − 96
Nov 26, 2024at MIAMIL 106 − 103
Feb 13, 2024at MILMIA 123 − 97
Nov 28, 2023at MIAMIL 131 − 124
Oct 30, 2023at MILMIL 122 − 114
Apr 26, 2023at MILMIA 128 − 126post

MIL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Mar 10vs PHX114 − 129L
Mar 8vs ORL91 − 130L
Mar 7vs UTAH113 − 99W
Mar 4vs ATL113 − 131L
Mar 2vs BOS81 − 108L
Mar 1at CHI97 − 120L
Feb 27vs NY98 − 127L
Feb 25vs CLE118 − 116W
Feb 24vs MIA128 − 117W
Feb 22vs TOR94 − 122L

MIA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W6
Mar 10vs WSH150 − 129W
Mar 8vs DET121 − 110W
Mar 6at CHA128 − 120W
Mar 5vs BKN126 − 110W
Mar 3vs BKN124 − 98W
Feb 28vs HOU115 − 105W
Feb 26at PHI117 − 124L
Feb 24at MIL117 − 128L
Feb 21vs MEM136 − 120W
Feb 20at ATL128 − 97W