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Suns at Bucks

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 10 · 7:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final PHX 129 – MIL 114
← NBA / Mar 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHX36263829129
MIL30353217114
Team box
PHX·MIL
48-89
field goals
42-82
24-51
3-pointers
16-38
9-11
free throws
14-20
39
rebounds
39
33
assists
26
12
turnovers
17
34
points in paint
38
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kyle KuzmaMIL383333
Devin BookerPHX342757
Jalen GreenPHX332545
Myles TurnerMIL322293
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL322263
Royce O'NealePHX322154

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +15
PHX +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 11 · PHX 15lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHX 53%, MIL 47% · Updated Mar 10

Expected margin
PHX by 0.8
Expected score
PHX 111.6 – 110.8 MIL
Expected total
222.3
SunsThe matchupBucks
−115Our fair odds+115
111.6Expected points110.8
+0.07Power rating−0.24
112.1Points / game111.1
111.0Allowed / game115.8
45.4FG%47.8
35.83P%38.6
43.4Rebounds / game41.2
37−27Season record27−36
5−5Last 104−6
Dillon Brooks · Mark WilliamsOutAlex Antetokounmpo · Cormac Ryan
Kevin Porter Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHX chance · MIL chance
Our model fair53.4%46.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHXPhoenix Suns−11553%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+11547%————
SpreadPHX by 0.8
PHXPhoenix Suns−0.8our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 222.3
Over222.3our total————
Under222.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Phoenix Suns by 0.8 expected
Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%
← PHX wins byMIL wins by →
Phoenix Suns wins by 5 or more42%
Phoenix Suns wins by 10 or more28%
Phoenix Suns wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

222.3 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 212.569%
Total over 222.549%
Total over 232.530%
Total from 213 to 23239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
GJalen Greenstarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FOso Ighodarostarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
FOusmane Diengstarted
CMyles Turnerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHX·MIL
Mar 8 vs CHA
last game
Mar 8 vs ORL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 10, 5:00 PM ET
Phoenix Suns
PHXDillon Brooks · left hand; fractureOut
PHXMark Williams · left foot third metatarsal; stress reactionOut
PHXGrayson Allen · right knee; injury managementQuestionable
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILCormac Ryan · g league - two-wayOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right knee; synovitisOut
MILBobby Portis · back; thoracic spine contusionQuestionable
MILJericho Sims · right patella; tendonitisQuestionable
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 63+ games
PHX·MIL
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.24
112.1
points / game
111.1
111.0
points allowed / game
115.8
37−27
season record
27−36
22−13
home record
15−17
15−14
away record
12−19
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
45.4
FG%
47.8
35.8
3P%
38.6
43.4
rebounds / game
41.2
24.7
assists / game
25.9
14.8
turnovers / game
14.6
43.2
points in paint / game
43.2

Rating Trend

PHX · MIL · 126 days
Phoenix SunsMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MIL 5−3
Apr 1, 2025at MILMIL 133 − 123
Mar 24, 2025at PHXPHX 108 − 106
Mar 17, 2024at MILMIL 140 − 129
Feb 6, 2024at PHXPHX 114 − 106
Mar 14, 2023at PHXMIL 116 − 104
Feb 26, 2023at MILMIL 104 − 101
Mar 6, 2022at MILMIL 132 − 122
Feb 10, 2022at PHXPHX 131 − 107

PHX · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Mar 8vs CHA111 − 99W
Mar 6vs NO118 − 116W
Mar 5vs CHI103 − 105L
Mar 3at SAC114 − 103W
Feb 26vs LAL113 − 110W
Feb 24vs BOS81 − 97L
Feb 22vs POR77 − 92L
Feb 21vs ORL113 − 110W
Feb 19at SA94 − 121L
Feb 11vs OKC109 − 136L

MIL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Mar 8vs ORL91 − 130L
Mar 7vs UTAH113 − 99W
Mar 4vs ATL113 − 131L
Mar 2vs BOS81 − 108L
Mar 1at CHI97 − 120L
Feb 27vs NY98 − 127L
Feb 25vs CLE118 − 116W
Feb 24vs MIA128 − 117W
Feb 22vs TOR94 − 122L
Feb 20at NO139 − 118W