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Bucks at Hawks

NBA · Saturday, Mar 14 · 2:00 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final MIL 99 – ATL 122
← NBA / Mar 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL3022262199
ATL31293527122
Team box
MIL·ATL
37-76
field goals
47-95
12-37
3-pointers
14-38
13-18
free throws
14-18
37
rebounds
47
24
assists
29
23
turnovers
13
36
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
CJ McCollumATL273032
Jalen JohnsonATL35231012
Ryan RollinsMIL312238
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL342031
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL301877
Bobby PortisMIL271461

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +26
MIL +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 26 · MIL 3lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 39%, ATL 61% · Updated Mar 14

Expected margin
ATL by 4.4
Expected score
ATL 118.7 – 114.2 MIL
Expected total
232.9
BucksThe matchupHawks
+153Our fair odds−153
114.2Expected points118.7
−0.24Power rating+0.01
111.0Points / game117.7
115.9Allowed / game116.9
47.9FG%47.2
38.63P%36.7
41.1Rebounds / game43.3
27−38Season record35−31
3−7Last 109−1
Alex Antetokounmpo · Cormac Ryan
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Ousmane DiengOutAsa Newell · Jonathan Kuminga
Keshon Gilbert

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · ATL chance
Our model fair39.4%60.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+15339%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−15361%————
SpreadATL by 4.4
MILMilwaukee Bucks+4.4our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−4.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.9
Over232.9our total————
Under232.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 4.4 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%
← MIL wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more52%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more37%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.9 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.550%
Total over 242.531%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
CJericho Simsstarted
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·ATL
Mar 12 at MIA
last game
Mar 12 vs BKN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 14, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILCormac Ryan · g league - two-wayOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · left ankle; sprainOut
MILOusmane Dieng · n/a; illnessOut
Atlanta Hawks
ATLAsa Newell · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLJonathan Kuminga · left knee; injury managementOut
ATLKeshon Gilbert · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 65+ games
MIL·ATL
−0.24
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
111.0
points / game
117.7
115.9
points allowed / game
116.9
27−38
season record
35−31
15−18
home record
17−16
12−20
away record
18−15
L3
streak
W8
3−7
last 10
9−1
47.9
FG%
47.2
38.6
3P%
36.7
41.1
rebounds / game
43.3
25.9
assists / game
30.3
14.6
turnovers / game
14.3
43.3
points in paint / game
51.9

Rating Trend

MIL · ATL · 130 days
Milwaukee BucksAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 5−5
Mar 4at MILATL 131 − 113
Jan 19at ATLMIL 112 − 110
Mar 30, 2025at MILATL 145 − 124
Mar 4, 2025at ATLMIL 127 − 121
Feb 7, 2025at ATLATL 115 − 110
Dec 14, 2024at MILMIL 110 − 102
Dec 4, 2024at MILATL 119 − 104
Mar 30, 2024at ATLMIL 122 − 113
Dec 2, 2023at MILMIL 132 − 121
Oct 29, 2023at MILATL 127 − 110

MIL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Mar 12at MIA105 − 112L
Mar 10vs PHX114 − 129L
Mar 8vs ORL91 − 130L
Mar 7vs UTAH113 − 99W
Mar 4vs ATL113 − 131L
Mar 2vs BOS81 − 108L
Mar 1at CHI97 − 120L
Feb 27vs NY98 − 127L
Feb 25vs CLE118 − 116W
Feb 24vs MIA128 − 117W

ATL · Last 10

9−1 · streak W8
Mar 12vs BKN108 − 97W
Mar 10vs DAL124 − 112W
Mar 7vs PHI125 − 116W
Mar 4at MIL131 − 113W
Mar 1vs POR135 − 101W
Feb 26vs WSH126 − 96W
Feb 24vs WSH119 − 98W
Feb 22vs BKN115 − 104W
Feb 20vs MIA97 − 128L
Feb 19at PHI117 − 107W