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Warriors at Mavericks

NBA · Monday, Mar 23 · 8:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final GS 137 – DAL 131
← NBA / Mar 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
GS3429352811137
DAL314225285131
Team box
GS·DAL
51-101
field goals
51-87
17-47
3-pointers
16-36
18-24
free throws
13-20
49
rebounds
26
39
assists
37
24
turnovers
23
62
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cooper FlaggDAL423249
Moses MoodyGS342333
Kristaps PorzingisGS292275
Brandin PodziemskiGS4020106
Daniel GaffordDAL322075
Gary Payton IIGS211743

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +15
GS +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: DAL 15 · GS 11lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 59%, DAL 41% · Updated Mar 23

Expected margin
GS by 3.6
Expected score
GS 116.5 – 112.9 DAL
Expected total
229.4
WarriorsThe matchupMavericks
−146Our fair odds+146
116.5Expected points112.9
+0.12Power rating−0.46
114.7Points / game113.5
114.6Allowed / game118.7
45.9FG%47.0
35.43P%33.9
42.5Rebounds / game44.9
33−38Season record23−48
2−8Last 102−8
Al Horford · Jimmy Butler III
Quinten Post · Seth Curry
Stephen CurryOutDereck Lively II · Kyrie Irving

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · DAL chance
Our model fair59.4%40.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors−14659%————
DALDallas Mavericks+14641%————
SpreadGS by 3.6
GSGolden State Warriors−3.6our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks+3.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.4
Over229.4our total————
Under229.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 3.6 expected
Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%
← GS wins byDAL wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more50%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more35%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.4 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GDe'Anthony Meltonstarted
GMoses Moodystarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
CKristaps Porzingisstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·DAL
Mar 21 at ATL
last game
Mar 21 vs LAC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 23, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · right soleus; strainOut
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; tearOut
GSQuinten Post · right foot; injury managementOut
GSSeth Curry · left adductor; strainOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
GSMoses Moody · right wrist; sprainQuestionable
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left hand; contusionProbable
GSKristaps Porzingis · left low back; injury managementProbable
Dallas Mavericks
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALBrandon Williams · concussion protocolDoubtful
DALCaleb Martin · right heel; contusionQuestionable
DALJohn Poulakidas · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALTyler Smith · g league - two-wayQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 71+ games
GS·DAL
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.46
114.7
points / game
113.5
114.6
points allowed / game
118.7
33−38
season record
23−48
19−15
home record
14−22
14−23
away record
9−26
L3
streak
L3
2−8
last 10
2−8
45.9
FG%
47.0
35.4
3P%
33.9
42.5
rebounds / game
44.9
28.9
assists / game
25.1
15.6
turnovers / game
14.8
44.6
points in paint / game
53.4

Rating Trend

GS · DAL · 139 days
Golden State WarriorsDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 6−4
Jan 22at DALDAL 123 − 115
Dec 25, 2025at GSGS 126 − 116
Feb 23, 2025at GSGS 126 − 102
Feb 12, 2025at DALDAL 111 − 107
Dec 15, 2024at GSDAL 143 − 133
Nov 12, 2024at GSGS 120 − 117
Apr 5, 2024at DALDAL 108 − 106
Apr 2, 2024at GSGS 104 − 100
Mar 13, 2024at DALDAL 109 − 99
Dec 30, 2023at GSDAL 132 − 122

GS · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Mar 21at ATL110 − 126L
Mar 20at DET101 − 115L
Mar 18at BOS99 − 120L
Mar 16at WSH125 − 117W
Mar 15at NY107 − 110L
Mar 13vs MIN117 − 127L
Mar 10vs CHI124 − 130L
Mar 9at UTAH116 − 119L
Mar 7at OKC97 − 104L
Mar 5at HOU115 − 113W

DAL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Mar 21vs LAC131 − 138L
Mar 18vs ATL120 − 135L
Mar 16at NO111 − 129L
Mar 15at CLE130 − 120W
Mar 13vs CLE105 − 138L
Mar 12at MEM120 − 112W
Mar 10at ATL112 − 124L
Mar 8at TOR92 − 122L
Mar 6at BOS100 − 120L
Mar 5at ORL114 − 115L