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Warriors at Hawks

NBA · Saturday, Mar 21 · 7:00 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final GS 110 – ATL 126
← NBA / Mar 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS36252029110
ATL35283924126
Team box
GS·ATL
41-82
field goals
48-89
15-42
3-pointers
13-40
13-17
free throws
17-20
29
rebounds
41
23
assists
28
21
turnovers
18
46
points in paint
66
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Dyson DanielsATL322876
CJ McCollumATL292335
De'Anthony MeltonGS222024
Nate WilliamsGS291942
Pat SpencerGS261803
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL271721

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +28
GS +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 28 · GS 8lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 46%, ATL 54% · Updated Mar 21

Expected margin
ATL by 1.1
Expected score
ATL 117.0 – 116.0 GS
Expected total
233.0
WarriorsThe matchupHawks
+117Our fair odds−117
116.0Expected points117.0
+0.12Power rating+0.09
114.8Points / game117.7
114.5Allowed / game116.6
45.9FG%47.2
35.33P%36.6
42.7Rebounds / game43.4
33−37Season record38−32
2−8Last 109−1
Al Horford · Jimmy Butler III
Kristaps Porzingis · Moses Moody
Seth CurryOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · ATL chance
Our model fair46.0%54.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors+11746%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−11754%————
SpreadATL by 1.1
GSGolden State Warriors+1.1our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.0
Over233.0our total————
Under233.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 1.1 expected
Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%
← GS wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more43%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more29%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.0 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.568%
Total over 233.548%
Total over 243.529%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GDe'Anthony Meltonstarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FGui Santosstarted
CQuinten Poststarted
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FMouhamed Gueyestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·ATL
Mar 20 at DET
last game
Mar 20 at HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 21, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · right soleus; strainOut
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; surgeryOut
GSKristaps Porzingis · left low back; tightnessOut
GSMoses Moody · right wrist; sprainOut
GSSeth Curry · left adductor; strainOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left knee; injury managementQuestionable
GSDraymond Green · left low back; injury managementQuestionable
GSGary Payton II · right knee; sorenessQuestionable
GSMalevy Leons · right wrist; sprainQuestionable
and 1 more
Atlanta Hawks
ATLAsa Newell · g league - on assignmentDoubtful
ATLKeshon Gilbert · g league - two-wayDoubtful
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayDoubtful

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
GS·ATL
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
114.8
points / game
117.7
114.5
points allowed / game
116.6
33−37
season record
38−32
19−15
home record
19−16
14−22
away record
19−16
L2
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
9−1
45.9
FG%
47.2
35.3
3P%
36.6
42.7
rebounds / game
43.4
29.0
assists / game
30.3
15.5
turnovers / game
14.2
44.5
points in paint / game
52.1

Rating Trend

GS · ATL · 137 days
Golden State WarriorsAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ATL 5−4
Jan 11at GSATL 124 − 111
Mar 22, 2025at ATLATL 124 − 115
Nov 20, 2024at GSGS 120 − 97
Feb 3, 2024at ATLATL 141 − 134
Jan 24, 2024at GSGS 134 − 112
Mar 17, 2023at ATLATL 127 − 119
Jan 2, 2023at GSGS 143 − 141
Mar 25, 2022at ATLATL 121 − 110
Nov 8, 2021at GSGS 127 − 113

GS · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Mar 20at DET101 − 115L
Mar 18at BOS99 − 120L
Mar 16at WSH125 − 117W
Mar 15at NY107 − 110L
Mar 13vs MIN117 − 127L
Mar 10vs CHI124 − 130L
Mar 9at UTAH116 − 119L
Mar 7at OKC97 − 104L
Mar 5at HOU115 − 113W
Mar 2vs LAC101 − 114L

ATL · Last 10

9−1 · streak L1
Mar 20at HOU95 − 117L
Mar 18at DAL135 − 120W
Mar 16vs ORL124 − 112W
Mar 14vs MIL122 − 99W
Mar 12vs BKN108 − 97W
Mar 10vs DAL124 − 112W
Mar 7vs PHI125 − 116W
Mar 4at MIL131 − 113W
Mar 1vs POR135 − 101W
Feb 26vs WSH126 − 96W