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Hawks at Rockets

NBA · Friday, Mar 20 · 7:00 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final ATL 95 – HOU 117
← NBA / Mar 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL2727221995
HOU35273916117
Team box
ATL·HOU
36-85
field goals
42-83
9-35
3-pointers
14-30
14-17
free throws
19-28
37
rebounds
51
22
assists
33
18
turnovers
20
46
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU302536
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU352392
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL272144
CJ McCollumATL251722
Zaccharie RisacherATL191662
Alperen SengunHOU3215910

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +34
ATL +34
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 34 · ATL 5lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 38%, HOU 62% · Updated Mar 20

Expected margin
HOU by 3.6
Expected score
HOU 116.1 – 112.5 ATL
Expected total
228.7
HawksThe matchupRockets
+163Our fair odds−163
112.5Expected points116.1
+0.09Power rating+0.39
118.1Points / game113.8
116.6Allowed / game110.0
47.3FG%47.7
36.83P%36.3
43.5Rebounds / game48.0
38−31Season record41−27
10−0Last 104−6
Jonathan KumingaOutFred VanVleet · Jae'Sean Tate
Steven Adams · Tristen Newton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · HOU chance
Our model fair38.1%61.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+16338%————
HOUHouston Rockets−16362%————
SpreadHOU by 3.6
ATLAtlanta Hawks+3.6our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−3.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.7
Over228.7our total————
Under228.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 3.6 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%
← ATL wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more50%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more35%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.7 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.550%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
GReed Sheppardstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·HOU
Mar 18 at DAL
last game
Mar 18 vs LAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 20, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLJonathan Kuminga · left knee; injuryOut
ATLAsa Newell · management g league - on assignmentDoubtful
ATLKeshon Gilbert · g league - two-wayDoubtful
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayDoubtful
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUJae'Sean Tate · right knee; sprainOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
ATL·HOU
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.39
118.1
points / game
113.8
116.6
points allowed / game
110.0
38−31
season record
41−27
19−16
home record
23−10
19−15
away record
18−17
W11
streak
L2
10−0
last 10
4−6
47.3
FG%
47.7
36.8
3P%
36.3
43.5
rebounds / game
48.0
30.4
assists / game
24.7
14.2
turnovers / game
15.7
52.2
points in paint / game
52.4

Rating Trend

ATL · HOU · 136 days
Atlanta HawksHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · HOU 5−4
Jan 29at ATLHOU 104 − 86
Mar 25, 2025at HOUHOU 121 − 114
Jan 28, 2025at ATLHOU 100 − 96
Feb 10, 2024at ATLATL 122 − 113
Dec 20, 2023at HOUATL 134 − 127
Nov 25, 2022at HOUHOU 128 − 122
Oct 19, 2022at ATLATL 117 − 107
Apr 10, 2022at HOUATL 130 − 114
Dec 13, 2021at ATLHOU 132 − 126

ATL · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Mar 18at DAL135 − 120W
Mar 16vs ORL124 − 112W
Mar 14vs MIL122 − 99W
Mar 12vs BKN108 − 97W
Mar 10vs DAL124 − 112W
Mar 7vs PHI125 − 116W
Mar 4at MIL131 − 113W
Mar 1vs POR135 − 101W
Feb 26vs WSH126 − 96W
Feb 24vs WSH119 − 98W

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Mar 18vs LAL116 − 124L
Mar 16vs LAL92 − 100L
Mar 13vs NO107 − 105W
Mar 11at DEN93 − 129L
Mar 10vs TOR113 − 99W
Mar 8at SA120 − 145L
Mar 6vs POR106 − 99W
Mar 5vs GS113 − 115L
Mar 2at WSH123 − 118W
Feb 28at MIA105 − 115L