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Lakers at Rockets

NBA · Monday, Mar 16 · 8:30 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final LAL 100 – HOU 92
← NBA / Mar 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL29223217100
HOU2829231292
Team box
LAL·HOU
37-84
field goals
38-79
8-34
3-pointers
5-26
18-22
free throws
11-15
32
rebounds
44
17
assists
21
12
turnovers
24
48
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL403664
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU402280
Amen ThompsonHOU4119125
LeBron JamesLAL331855
Kevin DurantHOU371852
Austin ReavesLAL401535

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +10
LAL +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 10 · LAL 10lead changes: 13

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 40%, HOU 60% · Updated Mar 16

Expected margin
HOU by 4.1
Expected score
HOU 113.7 – 109.6 LAL
Expected total
223.3
LakersThe matchupRockets
+149Our fair odds−149
109.6Expected points113.7
+0.20Power rating+0.43
116.5Points / game114.1
115.3Allowed / game109.9
50.0FG%47.7
35.93P%36.6
41.1Rebounds / game48.2
42−25Season record41−25
8−2Last 106−4
Maxi KleberOutFred VanVleet · JD Davison
Jae'Sean Tate · Steven Adams

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · HOU chance
Our model fair40.2%59.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers+14940%————
HOUHouston Rockets−14960%————
SpreadHOU by 4.1
LALLos Angeles Lakers+4.1our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−4.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.3
Over223.3our total————
Under223.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 4.1 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%
← LAL wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more51%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more36%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.3 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.569%
Total over 223.549%
Total over 233.530%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
CClint Capelastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·HOU
Mar 14 vs DEN
last game
Mar 13 vs NO
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 16, 5:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALMaxi Kleber · lumbar back; strainOut
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUJD Davison · g league - two-wayOut
HOUJae'Sean Tate · right knee; sprainOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUAlperen Sengun · low back; painQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 66+ games
LAL·HOU
+0.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.43
116.5
points / game
114.1
115.3
points allowed / game
109.9
42−25
season record
41−25
23−12
home record
23−8
19−13
away record
18−17
W5
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
6−4
50.0
FG%
47.7
35.9
3P%
36.6
41.1
rebounds / game
48.2
25.7
assists / game
24.7
14.5
turnovers / game
15.6
51.7
points in paint / game
52.2

Rating Trend

LAL · HOU · 132 days
Los Angeles LakersHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 5−5
Dec 25, 2025at LALHOU 119 − 96
Apr 11, 2025at LALLAL 140 − 109
Mar 31, 2025at LALLAL 104 − 98
Jan 5, 2025at HOUHOU 119 − 115
Jan 29, 2024at HOUHOU 135 − 119
Dec 2, 2023at LALLAL 107 − 97
Nov 19, 2023at LALLAL 105 − 104
Nov 8, 2023at HOUHOU 128 − 94
Apr 2, 2023at HOULAL 134 − 109
Mar 15, 2023at HOUHOU 114 − 110

LAL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Mar 14vs DEN127 − 125W
Mar 12vs CHI142 − 130W
Mar 10vs MIN120 − 106W
Mar 8vs NY110 − 97W
Mar 6vs IND128 − 117W
Mar 5at DEN113 − 120L
Mar 3vs NO110 − 101W
Mar 1vs SAC128 − 104W
Feb 28at GS129 − 101W
Feb 26at PHX110 − 113L

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 13vs NO107 − 105W
Mar 11at DEN93 − 129L
Mar 10vs TOR113 − 99W
Mar 8at SA120 − 145L
Mar 6vs POR106 − 99W
Mar 5vs GS113 − 115L
Mar 2at WSH123 − 118W
Feb 28at MIA105 − 115L
Feb 26at ORL113 − 108W
Feb 25vs SAC128 − 97W