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Nuggets at Suns

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 24 · 10:00 PM CT · Mortgage Matchup Center · Final DEN 125 – PHX 123
← NBA / Mar 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN28393028125
PHX35223828123
Team box
DEN·PHX
45-88
field goals
39-89
13-32
3-pointers
17-47
22-30
free throws
28-37
50
rebounds
41
35
assists
24
10
turnovers
3
58
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nikola JokicDEN35231717
Devin BookerPHX352238
Jalen GreenPHX292166
Grayson AllenPHX232153
Jamal MurrayDEN382116
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN231832

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHX +12
DEN +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHX 11 · DEN 12lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 54%, PHX 46% · Updated Mar 24

Expected margin
DEN by 1.8
Expected score
DEN 116.4 – 114.5 PHX
Expected total
230.9
NuggetsThe matchupSuns
−118Our fair odds+118
116.4Expected points114.5
+0.46Power rating+0.08
120.8Points / game112.2
116.4Allowed / game111.0
49.5FG%45.5
39.23P%36.2
43.3Rebounds / game43.0
44−28Season record40−32
6−4Last 105−5
Peyton WatsonOutAmir Coffey · Dillon Brooks
Haywood Highsmith · Mark Williams

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · PHX chance
Our model fair54.1%45.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−11854%————
PHXPhoenix Suns+11846%————
SpreadDEN by 1.8
DENDenver Nuggets−1.8our margin————
PHXPhoenix Suns+1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.9
Over230.9our total————
Under230.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 1.8 expected
Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%
← DEN wins byPHX wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more45%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more31%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.9 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.569%
Total over 230.550%
Total over 240.531%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
GJalen Greenstarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FOso Ighodarostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·PHX
Mar 22 vs POR
last game
Mar 22 vs TOR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 24, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENPeyton Watson · right hamstring; injury managementOut
Phoenix Suns
PHXAmir Coffey · left ankle; sprainOut
PHXDillon Brooks · left hand; fractureOut
PHXHaywood Highsmith · right knee; injury managementOut
PHXMark Williams · left foot third metatarsal; stress reactionOut
PHXGrayson Allen · left knee; injury managementQuestionable
PHXRoyce O'Neale · left knee; sorenessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 72+ games
DEN·PHX
+0.46
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
120.8
points / game
112.2
116.4
points allowed / game
111.0
44−28
season record
40−32
21−13
home record
23−14
23−15
away record
17−18
W2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
49.5
FG%
45.5
39.2
3P%
36.2
43.3
rebounds / game
43.0
28.5
assists / game
24.7
13.0
turnovers / game
14.6
49.1
points in paint / game
42.5

Rating Trend

DEN · PHX · 140 days
Denver NuggetsPhoenix Suns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHX 3−7
Nov 29, 2025at PHXDEN 130 − 112
Oct 25, 2025at DENDEN 133 − 111
Mar 7, 2025at DENDEN 149 − 141
Feb 8, 2025at PHXDEN 122 − 105
Dec 25, 2024at PHXPHX 110 − 100
Dec 23, 2024at DENDEN 117 − 90
Mar 27, 2024at DENPHX 104 − 97
Mar 5, 2024at DENPHX 117 − 107
Dec 1, 2023at PHXDEN 119 − 111
May 11, 2023at PHXDEN 125 − 100post

DEN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Mar 22vs POR128 − 112W
Mar 20vs TOR121 − 115W
Mar 18at MEM118 − 125L
Mar 17vs PHI124 − 96W
Mar 14at LAL125 − 127L
Mar 12at SA136 − 131W
Mar 11vs HOU129 − 93W
Mar 9at OKC126 − 129L
Mar 6vs NY103 − 142L
Mar 5vs LAL120 − 113W

PHX · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 22vs TOR120 − 98W
Mar 21vs MIL105 − 108L
Mar 19at SA100 − 101L
Mar 17at MIN104 − 116L
Mar 16at BOS112 − 120L
Mar 13at TOR115 − 122L
Mar 12at IND123 − 108W
Mar 10at MIL129 − 114W
Mar 8vs CHA111 − 99W
Mar 6vs NO118 − 116W