bayesRatings

Suns at Spurs

NBA · Thursday, Mar 19 · 7:00 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final PHX 100 – SA 101
← NBA / Mar 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHX26332021100
SA24282128101
Team box
PHX·SA
38-91
field goals
35-83
11-36
3-pointers
10-34
13-17
free throws
21-23
47
rebounds
42
27
assists
23
11
turnovers
14
34
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Victor WembanyamaSA3534121
Collin GillespiePHX342426
De'Aaron FoxSA332373
Devin BookerPHX342205
Jalen GreenPHX341784
Oso IghodaroPHX341577

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +11
PHX +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 6 · PHX 11lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHX 34%, SA 66% · Updated Mar 19

Expected margin
SA by 5.6
Expected score
SA 115.8 – 110.2 PHX
Expected total
225.9
SunsThe matchupSpurs
+195Our fair odds−195
110.2Expected points115.8
+0.10Power rating+0.58
112.4Points / game118.9
111.4Allowed / game111.9
45.5FG%48.1
36.13P%35.7
43.0Rebounds / game46.6
39−30Season record51−19
6−4Last 108−2
Dillon Brooks · Mark Williams
Royce O'NealeOut (3 each)David Jones Garcia · Emanuel Miller
Harrison Ingram

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHX chance · SA chance
Our model fair33.9%66.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHXPhoenix Suns+19534%————
SASan Antonio Spurs−19566%————
SpreadSA by 5.6
PHXPhoenix Suns+5.6our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−5.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.9
Over225.9our total————
Under225.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 5.6 expected
Phoenix Suns by 47 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 46 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 45 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%
← PHX wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more55%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more40%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more26%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.9 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.570%
Total over 225.550%
Total over 235.531%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GJordan Goodwinstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
GJalen Greenstarted
FOso Ighodarostarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHX·SA
Mar 17 at MIN
last game
Mar 17 at SAC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
6th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 19, 5:00 PM ET
Phoenix Suns
PHXDillon Brooks · left hand; fractureOut
PHXMark Williams · left foot third metatarsal; stress reactionOut
PHXRoyce O'Neale · left knee; sorenessOut
PHXGrayson Allen · left knee; sorenessQuestionable
PHXHaywood Highsmith · right knee; injury managementQuestionable
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 69+ games
PHX·SA
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.58
112.4
points / game
118.9
111.4
points allowed / game
111.9
39−30
season record
51−19
22−13
home record
26−7
17−17
away record
25−12
L3
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
8−2
45.5
FG%
48.1
36.1
3P%
35.7
43.0
rebounds / game
46.6
24.7
assists / game
27.6
14.6
turnovers / game
13.5
42.7
points in paint / game
50.8

Rating Trend

PHX · SA · 135 days
Phoenix SunsSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SA 5−5
Feb 19at SASA 121 − 94
Nov 23, 2025at PHXPHX 111 − 102
Nov 2, 2025at PHXPHX 130 − 118
Apr 11, 2025at PHXPHX 117 − 98
Feb 20, 2025at SASA 120 − 109
Dec 3, 2024at PHXPHX 104 − 93
Mar 25, 2024at SASA 104 − 102
Mar 23, 2024at SAPHX 131 − 106
Nov 2, 2023at PHXSA 132 − 121
Oct 31, 2023at PHXSA 115 − 114

PHX · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Mar 17at MIN104 − 116L
Mar 16at BOS112 − 120L
Mar 13at TOR115 − 122L
Mar 12at IND123 − 108W
Mar 10at MIL129 − 114W
Mar 8vs CHA111 − 99W
Mar 6vs NO118 − 116W
Mar 5vs CHI103 − 105L
Mar 3at SAC114 − 103W
Feb 26vs LAL113 − 110W

SA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Mar 17at SAC132 − 104W
Mar 16at LAC119 − 115W
Mar 14vs CHA115 − 102W
Mar 12vs DEN131 − 136L
Mar 10vs BOS125 − 116W
Mar 8vs HOU145 − 120W
Mar 6vs LAC116 − 112W
Mar 5vs DET121 − 106W
Mar 3at PHI131 − 91W
Mar 1at NY89 − 114L