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Suns at Pacers

NBA · Thursday, Mar 12 · 6:00 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final PHX 123 – IND 108
← NBA / Mar 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHX36312927123
IND36252720108
Team box
PHX·IND
46-88
field goals
37-82
13-32
3-pointers
12-40
18-22
free throws
22-25
40
rebounds
36
21
assists
24
14
turnovers
16
46
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Devin BookerPHX354375
Jalen GreenPHX343634
Andrew NembhardIND172302
Royce O'NealePHX281531
Jarace WalkerIND261262
Ethan ThompsonIND381122

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +16
PHX +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 5 · PHX 16lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHX 58%, IND 42% · Updated Mar 12

Expected margin
PHX by 2.6
Expected score
PHX 114.9 – 112.3 IND
Expected total
227.2
SunsThe matchupPacers
−140Our fair odds+140
114.9Expected points112.3
+0.07Power rating−0.45
112.3Points / game111.4
111.0Allowed / game119.9
45.5FG%45.0
36.03P%34.7
43.3Rebounds / game42.3
38−27Season record15−50
6−4Last 100−10
Dillon Brooks · Mark WilliamsOutJohnny Furphy · Pascal Siakam
Quenton Jackson · Tyrese Haliburton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHX chance · IND chance
Our model fair58.4%41.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHXPhoenix Suns−14058%————
INDIndiana Pacers+14042%————
SpreadPHX by 2.6
PHXPhoenix Suns−2.6our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers+2.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.2
Over227.2our total————
Under227.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Phoenix Suns by 2.6 expected
Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%
← PHX wins byIND wins by →
Phoenix Suns wins by 5 or more47%
Phoenix Suns wins by 10 or more32%
Phoenix Suns wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.2 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.549%
Total over 237.529%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
GJalen Greenstarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FOso Ighodarostarted
Indiana Pacers
GEthan Thompsonstarted
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GKobe Brownstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
CIvica Zubacstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHX·IND
Mar 10 at MIL
last game
Mar 10 at SAC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 12, 5:00 PM ET
Phoenix Suns
PHXDillon Brooks · left hand; fractureOut
PHXMark Williams · left foot third metatarsal; stress reactionOut
PHXGrayson Allen · right knee; injury managementQuestionable
PHXHaywood Highsmith · right knee; injury managementQuestionable
Indiana Pacers
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl; tearOut
INDPascal Siakam · right knee; sprainOut
INDQuenton Jackson · right calf; sorenessOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDAaron Nesmith · right ankle; injury managementQuestionable
INDAndrew Nembhard · low back and neck; sorenessQuestionable
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayQuestionable
INDIvica Zubac · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
INDJalen Slawson · g league - two-wayQuestionable
INDT.J. McConnell · right hamstring; sorenessQuestionable
and 1 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 65+ games
PHX·IND
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.45
112.3
points / game
111.4
111.0
points allowed / game
119.9
38−27
season record
15−50
22−13
home record
10−22
16−14
away record
5−28
W3
streak
L10
6−4
last 10
0−10
45.5
FG%
45.0
36.0
3P%
34.7
43.3
rebounds / game
42.3
24.8
assists / game
26.5
14.7
turnovers / game
14.4
43.0
points in paint / game
45.7

Rating Trend

PHX · IND · 128 days
Phoenix SunsIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · IND 3−6
Nov 13, 2025at PHXPHX 133 − 98
Jan 4, 2025at INDIND 126 − 108
Dec 19, 2024at PHXIND 120 − 111
Jan 26, 2024at INDIND 133 − 131
Jan 21, 2024at PHXPHX 117 − 110
Feb 10, 2023at INDPHX 117 − 104
Jan 21, 2023at PHXPHX 112 − 107
Jan 22, 2022at PHXPHX 113 − 103
Jan 14, 2022at INDPHX 112 − 94

PHX · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Mar 10at MIL129 − 114W
Mar 8vs CHA111 − 99W
Mar 6vs NO118 − 116W
Mar 5vs CHI103 − 105L
Mar 3at SAC114 − 103W
Feb 26vs LAL113 − 110W
Feb 24vs BOS81 − 97L
Feb 22vs POR77 − 92L
Feb 21vs ORL113 − 110W
Feb 19at SA94 − 121L

IND · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Mar 10at SAC109 − 114L
Mar 8at POR111 − 131L
Mar 6at LAL117 − 128L
Mar 4at LAC107 − 130L
Mar 1vs MEM106 − 125L
Feb 26vs CHA109 − 133L
Feb 24vs PHI114 − 135L
Feb 22vs DAL130 − 134L
Feb 20at WSH118 − 131L
Feb 19at WSH105 − 112L