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Spurs at Kings

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 17 · 9:00 PM CT · Golden 1 Center · Final SA 132 – SAC 104
← NBA / Mar 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA39393420132
SAC22253423104
Team box
SA·SAC
48-93
field goals
41-93
25-49
3-pointers
14-36
11-13
free throws
8-13
50
rebounds
41
41
assists
32
6
turnovers
8
40
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Maxime RaynaudSAC423293
Victor WembanyamaSA221883
Keldon JohnsonSA201811
Julian ChampagnieSA241711
Harrison BarnesSA221643
Nique CliffordSAC371587

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SAC +38
SA +38
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SAC 0 · SA 38lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 75%, SAC 25% · Updated Mar 17

Expected margin
SA by 9.5
Expected score
SA 121.7 – 112.2 SAC
Expected total
233.9
SpursThe matchupKings
−297Our fair odds+297
121.7Expected points112.2
+0.58Power rating−0.72
118.8Points / game110.8
112.0Allowed / game120.6
48.1FG%46.6
35.53P%33.6
46.5Rebounds / game42.1
50−19Season record18−51
8−2Last 105−5
David Jones Garcia · Devin Vassell
Emanuel Miller · Harrison IngramOutDe'Andre Hunter · Devin Carter
Domantas Sabonis · Drew Eubanks
Isaiah Stevens

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · SAC chance
Our model fair74.8%25.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs−29775%————
SACSacramento Kings+29725%————
SpreadSA by 9.5
SASan Antonio Spurs−9.5our margin————
SACSacramento Kings+9.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.9
Over233.9our total————
Under233.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 9.5 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 49 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 48 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 47 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 48 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 49 points: <1%
← SA wins bySAC wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more67%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more50%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more34%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.9 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.569%
Total over 233.550%
Total over 243.531%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GNique Cliffordstarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted
CMaxime Raynaudstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·SAC
Mar 16 at LAC
last game
Mar 15 vs UTAH
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 17, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SADevin Vassell · left ankle; sorenessOut
SAEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SADylan Harper · right calf; contusionQuestionable
SALuke Kornet · right knee; sorenessQuestionable
Sacramento Kings
SACDe'Andre Hunter · left eye; retinal repairOut
SACDevin Carter · right calf; contusionOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; meniscus repairOut
SACDrew Eubanks · left thumb; ucl tearOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left ankle; sprainOut
SACPatrick Baldwin Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
SACZach LaVine · right 5th finger; tendon repairOut
SACMalik Monk · right ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 69+ games
SA·SAC
+0.58
rating (0 = average)
−0.72
118.8
points / game
110.8
112.0
points allowed / game
120.6
50−19
season record
18−51
26−7
home record
12−23
24−12
away record
6−28
W2
streak
W2
8−2
last 10
5−5
48.1
FG%
46.6
35.5
3P%
33.6
46.5
rebounds / game
42.1
27.4
assists / game
25.4
13.6
turnovers / game
14.3
50.9
points in paint / game
50.1

Rating Trend

SA · SAC · 133 days
San Antonio SpursSacramento Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SAC 5−5
Feb 21at SASA 139 − 122
Nov 16, 2025at SASA 123 − 110
Mar 7, 2025at SACSAC 127 − 109
Dec 6, 2024at SASAC 140 − 113
Dec 1, 2024at SACSA 127 − 125
Nov 11, 2024at SASA 116 − 96
Mar 7, 2024at SACSAC 131 − 129
Feb 22, 2024at SACSAC 127 − 122
Nov 17, 2023at SASAC 129 − 120
Apr 2, 2023at SACSA 142 − 134

SA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Mar 16at LAC119 − 115W
Mar 14vs CHA115 − 102W
Mar 12vs DEN131 − 136L
Mar 10vs BOS125 − 116W
Mar 8vs HOU145 − 120W
Mar 6vs LAC116 − 112W
Mar 5vs DET121 − 106W
Mar 3at PHI131 − 91W
Mar 1at NY89 − 114L
Feb 26at BKN126 − 110W

SAC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Mar 15vs UTAH116 − 111W
Mar 14at LAC118 − 109W
Mar 11vs CHA109 − 117L
Mar 10vs IND114 − 109W
Mar 8vs CHI126 − 110W
Mar 5vs NO123 − 133L
Mar 3vs PHX103 − 114L
Mar 1at LAL104 − 128L
Feb 26at DAL130 − 121W
Feb 25at HOU97 − 128L