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Jazz at Kings

NBA · Sunday, Mar 15 · 9:00 PM CT · Golden 1 Center · Final UTAH 111 – SAC 116
← NBA / Mar 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
UTAH28213923111
SAC26283527116
Team box
UTAH·SAC
41-86
field goals
41-85
12-36
3-pointers
11-36
17-25
free throws
23-28
40
rebounds
50
22
assists
28
15
turnovers
18
46
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
DeMar DeRozanSAC3841411
Cody WilliamsUTAH383477
Brice SensabaughUTAH232230
Isaiah CollierUTAH252153
Precious AchiuwaSAC3320111
Killian HayesSAC381658

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SAC +12
UTAH +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SAC 12 · UTAH 6lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 42%, SAC 58% · Updated Mar 15

Expected margin
SAC by 2.8
Expected score
SAC 122.5 – 119.7 UTAH
Expected total
242.2
JazzThe matchupKings
+136Our fair odds−136
119.7Expected points122.5
−0.89Power rating−0.75
117.4Points / game110.8
125.0Allowed / game120.7
46.6FG%46.6
34.93P%33.6
43.9Rebounds / game42.0
20−47Season record17−51
2−8Last 105−5
Ace Bailey · Jaren Jackson Jr.
John Konchar · Jusuf Nurkic
Keyonte GeorgeOut (5 each)De'Andre Hunter · Devin Carter
Domantas Sabonis · Drew Eubanks
Isaiah Stevens

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · SAC chance
Our model fair42.4%57.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Jazz+13642%————
SACSacramento Kings−13658%————
SpreadSAC by 2.8
UTAHUtah Jazz+2.8our margin————
SACSacramento Kings−2.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 242.2
Over242.2our total————
Under242.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Sacramento Kings by 2.8 expected
Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%
← UTAH wins bySAC wins by →
Sacramento Kings wins by 5 or more48%
Sacramento Kings wins by 10 or more33%
Sacramento Kings wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

242.2 expected
191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 2%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%304 points: <1%305 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 232.567%
Total over 242.548%
Total over 252.530%
Total from 233 to 25237%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Utah Jazz
GElijah Harklessstarted
GIsaiah Collierstarted
GAndersson Garciastarted
FCody Williamsstarted
FBrice Sensabaughstarted
Sacramento Kings
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GKillian Hayesstarted
GNique Cliffordstarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted
CMaxime Raynaudstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·SAC
Mar 13 at POR
last game
Mar 14 at LAC
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 15, 5:00 PM ET
Utah Jazz
UTAHAce Bailey · concussion protocolOut
UTAHJaren Jackson Jr. · left knee; injury recoveryOut
UTAHJohn Konchar · left calf; injury managementOut
UTAHJusuf Nurkic · nose; injury recoveryOut
UTAHKeyonte George · right hamstring; strainOut
UTAHKyle Filipowski · restOut
UTAHLauri Markkanen · right hip; impingementOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut
Sacramento Kings
SACDe'Andre Hunter · left eye; retinal repairOut
SACDevin Carter · right calf; contusionOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; meniscus repairOut
SACDrew Eubanks · left thumb; sorenessOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left ankle; sprainOut
SACMalik Monk · right ankle; sorenessOut
SACPatrick Baldwin Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
SACRussell Westbrook · right foot; sorenessOut
SACZach LaVine · right 5th finger; tendon repairOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 67+ games
UTAH·SAC
−0.89
rating (0 = average)
−0.75
117.4
points / game
110.8
125.0
points allowed / game
120.7
20−47
season record
17−51
12−22
home record
11−23
8−25
away record
6−28
L2
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
5−5
46.6
FG%
46.6
34.9
3P%
33.6
43.9
rebounds / game
42.0
29.5
assists / game
25.4
15.6
turnovers / game
14.2
51.3
points in paint / game
50.1

Rating Trend

UTAH · SAC · 131 days
Utah JazzSacramento Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SAC 8−2
Feb 11at UTAHUTAH 121 − 93
Nov 28, 2025at UTAHUTAH 128 − 119
Oct 24, 2025at SACSAC 105 − 104
Feb 26, 2025at UTAHSAC 118 − 101
Dec 8, 2024at SACSAC 141 − 97
Nov 16, 2024at SACSAC 121 − 117
Oct 29, 2024at UTAHSAC 113 − 96
Mar 31, 2024at SACSAC 127 − 106
Dec 16, 2023at SACSAC 125 − 104
Oct 25, 2023at UTAHSAC 130 − 114

UTAH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Mar 13at POR114 − 124L
Mar 11vs NY117 − 134L
Mar 9vs GS119 − 116W
Mar 7at MIL99 − 113L
Mar 5at WSH122 − 112W
Mar 4at PHI102 − 106L
Mar 2vs DEN125 − 128L
Feb 28vs NO105 − 115L
Feb 26vs NO118 − 129L
Feb 23at HOU105 − 125L

SAC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 14at LAC118 − 109W
Mar 11vs CHA109 − 117L
Mar 10vs IND114 − 109W
Mar 8vs CHI126 − 110W
Mar 5vs NO123 − 133L
Mar 3vs PHX103 − 114L
Mar 1at LAL104 − 128L
Feb 26at DAL130 − 121W
Feb 25at HOU97 − 128L
Feb 23at MEM123 − 114W