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Suns at Timberwolves

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 17 · 7:00 PM CT · Target Center · Final PHX 104 – MIN 116
← NBA / Mar 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHX39242318104
MIN36282824116
Team box
PHX·MIN
37-97
field goals
43-84
13-37
3-pointers
9-28
17-23
free throws
21-29
40
rebounds
49
25
assists
28
14
turnovers
18
44
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Devin BookerPHX353463
Julius RandleMIN333272
Bones HylandMIN292225
Ayo DosunmuMIN341952
Oso IghodaroPHX3416104
Jaden McDanielsMIN371674

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +16
PHX +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 16 · PHX 11lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHX 37%, MIN 63% · Updated Mar 17

Expected margin
MIN by 4.7
Expected score
MIN 114.8 – 110.2 PHX
Expected total
225.0
SunsThe matchupTimberwolves
+168Our fair odds−168
110.2Expected points114.8
+0.10Power rating+0.43
112.5Points / game118.5
111.3Allowed / game115.2
45.6FG%48.5
36.13P%37.3
43.0Rebounds / game44.4
39−29Season record41−27
6−4Last 106−4
Dillon Brooks · Mark WilliamsOutAnthony Edwards · Enrique Freeman
Joan Beringer · Julian Phillips
Zyon Pullin

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHX chance · MIN chance
Our model fair37.4%62.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHXPhoenix Suns+16837%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−16863%————
SpreadMIN by 4.7
PHXPhoenix Suns+4.7our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−4.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.0
Over225.0our total————
Under225.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 4.7 expected
Phoenix Suns by 46 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 45 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%
← PHX wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more53%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more38%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.0 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.568%
Total over 225.549%
Total over 235.529%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
GJalen Greenstarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FOso Ighodarostarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAyo Dosunmustarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHX·MIN
Mar 16 at BOS
last game
Mar 15 at OKC
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 17, 5:00 PM ET
Phoenix Suns
PHXDillon Brooks · left hand; fractureOut
PHXMark Williams · left foot third metatarsal; stress reactionOut
PHXGrayson Allen · left knee; sorenessDoubtful
PHXHaywood Highsmith · right knee; injury managementQuestionable
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINAnthony Edwards · right knee; inflammationOut
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINJoan Beringer · g league - on assignmentOut
MINJulian Phillips · g league - on assignmentOut
MINZyon Pullin · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
PHX·MIN
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.43
112.5
points / game
118.5
111.3
points allowed / game
115.2
39−29
season record
41−27
22−13
home record
22−12
17−16
away record
19−15
L2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
6−4
45.6
FG%
48.5
36.1
3P%
37.3
43.0
rebounds / game
44.4
24.7
assists / game
26.1
14.6
turnovers / game
14.8
42.7
points in paint / game
49.9

Rating Trend

PHX · MIN · 133 days
Phoenix SunsMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 8−2
Dec 8, 2025at MINPHX 108 − 105
Nov 21, 2025at PHXPHX 114 − 113
Mar 28, 2025at MINMIN 124 − 109
Mar 2, 2025at PHXMIN 116 − 98
Jan 29, 2025at PHXMIN 121 − 113
Nov 17, 2024at MINMIN 120 − 117
Apr 28, 2024at PHXMIN 122 − 116post
Apr 26, 2024at PHXMIN 126 − 109post
Apr 23, 2024at MINMIN 105 − 93post
Apr 20, 2024at MINMIN 120 − 95post

PHX · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Mar 16at BOS112 − 120L
Mar 13at TOR115 − 122L
Mar 12at IND123 − 108W
Mar 10at MIL129 − 114W
Mar 8vs CHA111 − 99W
Mar 6vs NO118 − 116W
Mar 5vs CHI103 − 105L
Mar 3at SAC114 − 103W
Feb 26vs LAL113 − 110W
Feb 24vs BOS81 − 97L

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Mar 15at OKC103 − 116L
Mar 13at GS127 − 117W
Mar 11at LAC128 − 153L
Mar 10at LAL106 − 120L
Mar 7vs ORL92 − 119L
Mar 5vs TOR115 − 107W
Mar 3vs MEM117 − 110W
Mar 1at DEN117 − 108W
Feb 26at LAC94 − 88W
Feb 24at POR124 − 121W