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Timberwolves at Thunder

NBA · Sunday, Mar 15 · 12:00 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final MIN 103 – OKC 116
← NBA / Mar 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN22312327103
OKC23243336116
Team box
MIN·OKC
36-77
field goals
42-101
15-33
3-pointers
15-40
16-22
free throws
17-19
46
rebounds
44
18
assists
28
25
turnovers
7
32
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Julius RandleMIN353276
Chet HolmgrenOKC322192
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC3320310
Isaiah JoeOKC212040
Anthony EdwardsMIN371965
Ayo DosunmuMIN331840

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +18
MIN +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 18 · MIN 9lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 29%, OKC 71% · Updated Mar 15

Expected margin
OKC by 6.6
Expected score
OKC 116.1 – 109.5 MIN
Expected total
225.6
TimberwolvesThe matchupThunder
+239Our fair odds−239
109.5Expected points116.1
+0.47Power rating+1.17
118.7Points / game118.6
115.1Allowed / game107.8
48.6FG%48.3
37.23P%36.0
44.3Rebounds / game43.7
41−26Season record52−15
6−4Last 109−1
Enrique Freeman · Joan Beringer
Julian Phillips · Zyon PullinOutBranden Carlson · Brooks Barnhizer
Jalen Williams · Nikola Topic
Thomas Sorber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · OKC chance
Our model fair29.5%70.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+23929%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−23971%————
SpreadOKC by 6.6
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+6.6our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−6.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.6
Over225.6our total————
Under225.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 6.6 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 49 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 48 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%
← MIN wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more58%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more42%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more28%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.6 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.569%
Total over 225.550%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GAjay Mitchellstarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·OKC
Mar 13 at GS
last game
Mar 12 vs BOS
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 15, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINJoan Beringer · g league - on assignmentOut
MINJulian Phillips · g league - on assignmentOut
MINZyon Pullin · g league - two-wayOut
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCBranden Carlson · low back; strainOut
OKCBrooks Barnhizer · g league - two-wayOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring; strainOut
OKCNikola Topic · g league - on assignmentOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 67+ games
MIN·OKC
+0.47
rating (0 = average)
+1.17
118.7
points / game
118.6
115.1
points allowed / game
107.8
41−26
season record
52−15
22−12
home record
28−7
19−14
away record
24−8
W1
streak
W7
6−4
last 10
9−1
48.6
FG%
48.3
37.2
3P%
36.0
44.3
rebounds / game
43.7
26.2
assists / game
25.4
14.7
turnovers / game
12.6
50.2
points in paint / game
49.2

Rating Trend

MIN · OKC · 131 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OKC 6−4
Jan 29at MINMIN 123 − 111
Dec 19, 2025at MINMIN 112 − 107
Nov 26, 2025at OKCOKC 113 − 105
May 28, 2025at OKCOKC 124 − 94post
May 26, 2025at MINOKC 128 − 126post
May 24, 2025at MINMIN 143 − 101post
May 22, 2025at OKCOKC 118 − 103post
May 20, 2025at OKCOKC 114 − 88post
Feb 24, 2025at OKCMIN 131 − 128
Feb 23, 2025at MINOKC 130 − 123

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 13at GS127 − 117W
Mar 11at LAC128 − 153L
Mar 10at LAL106 − 120L
Mar 7vs ORL92 − 119L
Mar 5vs TOR115 − 107W
Mar 3vs MEM117 − 110W
Mar 1at DEN117 − 108W
Feb 26at LAC94 − 88W
Feb 24at POR124 − 121W
Feb 22vs PHI108 − 135L

OKC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W7
Mar 12vs BOS104 − 102W
Mar 9vs DEN129 − 126W
Mar 7vs GS104 − 97W
Mar 4at NY103 − 100W
Mar 3at CHI116 − 108W
Mar 1at DAL100 − 87W
Feb 27vs DEN127 − 121W
Feb 25at DET116 − 124L
Feb 24at TOR116 − 107W
Feb 22vs CLE121 − 113W