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Bucks at Suns

NBA · Saturday, Mar 21 · 9:00 PM CT · Mortgage Matchup Center · Final MIL 108 – PHX 105
← NBA / Mar 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL15422427108
PHX26263023105
Team box
MIL·PHX
39-78
field goals
40-89
16-39
3-pointers
15-39
14-21
free throws
10-18
42
rebounds
38
20
assists
27
17
turnovers
10
38
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Ryan RollinsMIL3326107
Jalen GreenPHX362432
Kyle KuzmaMIL242021
Collin GillespiePHX331846
Devin BookerPHX351447
Ryan DunnPHX231283

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHX +13
MIL +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHX 13 · MIL 9lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 36%, PHX 64% · Updated Mar 21

Expected margin
PHX by 5.2
Expected score
PHX 113.9 – 108.7 MIL
Expected total
222.6
BucksThe matchupSuns
+178Our fair odds−178
108.7Expected points113.9
−0.29Power rating+0.10
111.0Points / game112.2
116.4Allowed / game111.2
47.9FG%45.5
38.73P%36.0
40.9Rebounds / game43.0
28−41Season record39−31
2−8Last 105−5
Alex Antetokounmpo · Giannis AntetokounmpoOutAmir Coffey · Dillon Brooks
Grayson Allen · Haywood Highsmith
Mark Williams

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · PHX chance
Our model fair36.0%64.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+17836%————
PHXPhoenix Suns−17864%————
SpreadPHX by 5.2
MILMilwaukee Bucks+5.2our margin————
PHXPhoenix Suns−5.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 222.6
Over222.6our total————
Under222.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Phoenix Suns by 5.2 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 45 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 46 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 47 points: <1%
← MIL wins byPHX wins by →
Phoenix Suns wins by 5 or more54%
Phoenix Suns wins by 10 or more39%
Phoenix Suns wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

222.6 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 212.569%
Total over 222.550%
Total over 232.530%
Total from 213 to 23239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FTaurean Princestarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
FOusmane Diengstarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GJordan Goodwinstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
GJalen Greenstarted
FOso Ighodarostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·PHX
Mar 19 at UTAH
last game
Mar 19 at SA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 21, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · left knee; hyperextension; bone bruiseOut
MILGary Harris · left groin; contusionQuestionable
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right knee; synovitisQuestionable
Phoenix Suns
PHXAmir Coffey · left ankle; sprainOut
PHXDillon Brooks · left hand; fractureOut
PHXGrayson Allen · left knee; inflammationOut
PHXHaywood Highsmith · right knee; injury managementOut
PHXMark Williams · left foot third metatarsal; stress reactionOut
PHXRoyce O'Neale · left knee; sorenessOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 69+ games
MIL·PHX
−0.29
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
111.0
points / game
112.2
116.4
points allowed / game
111.2
28−41
season record
39−31
16−19
home record
22−13
12−22
away record
17−18
L2
streak
L4
2−8
last 10
5−5
47.9
FG%
45.5
38.7
3P%
36.0
40.9
rebounds / game
43.0
25.9
assists / game
24.7
14.7
turnovers / game
14.6
42.8
points in paint / game
42.6

Rating Trend

MIL · PHX · 137 days
Milwaukee BucksPhoenix Suns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · PHX 4−5
Mar 10at MILPHX 129 − 114
Apr 1, 2025at MILMIL 133 − 123
Mar 24, 2025at PHXPHX 108 − 106
Mar 17, 2024at MILMIL 140 − 129
Feb 6, 2024at PHXPHX 114 − 106
Mar 14, 2023at PHXMIL 116 − 104
Feb 26, 2023at MILMIL 104 − 101
Mar 6, 2022at MILMIL 132 − 122
Feb 10, 2022at PHXPHX 131 − 107

MIL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Mar 19at UTAH96 − 128L
Mar 17vs CLE116 − 123L
Mar 15vs IND134 − 123W
Mar 14at ATL99 − 122L
Mar 12at MIA105 − 112L
Mar 10vs PHX114 − 129L
Mar 8vs ORL91 − 130L
Mar 7vs UTAH113 − 99W
Mar 4vs ATL113 − 131L
Mar 2vs BOS81 − 108L

PHX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Mar 19at SA100 − 101L
Mar 17at MIN104 − 116L
Mar 16at BOS112 − 120L
Mar 13at TOR115 − 122L
Mar 12at IND123 − 108W
Mar 10at MIL129 − 114W
Mar 8vs CHA111 − 99W
Mar 6vs NO118 − 116W
Mar 5vs CHI103 − 105L
Mar 3at SAC114 − 103W