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Pacers at Bucks

NBA · Sunday, Mar 15 · 2:30 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final IND 123 – MIL 134
← NBA / Mar 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND34313127123
MIL26364032134
Team box
IND·MIL
42-81
field goals
49-90
21-42
3-pointers
23-44
18-23
free throws
13-19
40
rebounds
40
34
assists
31
19
turnovers
9
30
points in paint
38
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Aaron NesmithIND293221
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL2331148
Bobby PortisMIL2729103
Ryan RollinsMIL372027
Jay HuffIND201610
Jarace WalkerIND301486

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +19
IND +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 19 · IND 10lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 41%, MIL 59% · Updated Mar 15

Expected margin
MIL by 3.6
Expected score
MIL 116.5 – 112.9 IND
Expected total
229.4
PacersThe matchupBucks
+146Our fair odds−146
112.9Expected points116.5
−0.45Power rating−0.24
111.0Points / game110.8
119.7Allowed / game116.0
44.9FG%47.9
34.53P%38.5
42.2Rebounds / game41.0
15−52Season record27−39
0−10Last 102−8
Andrew Nembhard · Ben Sheppard
Ethan Thompson · Johnny Furphy
Pascal SiakamOutAlex Antetokounmpo · Kevin Porter Jr.
Ousmane Dieng

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · MIL chance
Our model fair40.6%59.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+14641%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−14659%————
SpreadMIL by 3.6
INDIndiana Pacers+3.6our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−3.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.4
Over229.4our total————
Under229.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 3.6 expected
Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%
← IND wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more50%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more35%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.4 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GT.J. McConnellstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
FJalen Slawsonstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
CIvica Zubacstarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CMyles Turnerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·MIL
Mar 13 vs NY
last game
Mar 14 at ATL
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 15, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDAndrew Nembhard · right calf; contusionOut
INDBen Sheppard · left ankle; sprainOut
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl; tearOut
INDPascal Siakam · right knee; sprainOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right knee; synovitisOut
MILOusmane Dieng · n/a; illnessOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 66+ games
IND·MIL
−0.45
rating (0 = average)
−0.24
111.0
points / game
110.8
119.7
points allowed / game
116.0
15−52
season record
27−39
10−24
home record
15−18
5−28
away record
12−21
L12
streak
L4
0−10
last 10
2−8
44.9
FG%
47.9
34.5
3P%
38.5
42.2
rebounds / game
41.0
26.4
assists / game
25.9
14.4
turnovers / game
14.8
45.6
points in paint / game
43.2

Rating Trend

IND · MIL · 131 days
Indiana PacersMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 5−5
Feb 6at MILMIL 105 − 99
Dec 23, 2025at INDMIL 111 − 94
Nov 3, 2025at INDMIL 117 − 115
Apr 29, 2025at INDIND 119 − 118post
Apr 27, 2025at MILIND 129 − 103post
Apr 25, 2025at MILMIL 117 − 101post
Apr 22, 2025at INDIND 123 − 115post
Apr 19, 2025at INDIND 117 − 98post
Mar 15, 2025at MILMIL 126 − 119
Mar 11, 2025at INDIND 115 − 114

IND · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Mar 13vs NY92 − 101L
Mar 12vs PHX108 − 123L
Mar 10at SAC109 − 114L
Mar 8at POR111 − 131L
Mar 6at LAL117 − 128L
Mar 4at LAC107 − 130L
Mar 1vs MEM106 − 125L
Feb 26vs CHA109 − 133L
Feb 24vs PHI114 − 135L
Feb 22vs DAL130 − 134L

MIL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Mar 14at ATL99 − 122L
Mar 12at MIA105 − 112L
Mar 10vs PHX114 − 129L
Mar 8vs ORL91 − 130L
Mar 7vs UTAH113 − 99W
Mar 4vs ATL113 − 131L
Mar 2vs BOS81 − 108L
Mar 1at CHI97 − 120L
Feb 27vs NY98 − 127L
Feb 25vs CLE118 − 116W