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Bucks at Jazz

NBA · Thursday, Mar 19 · 8:00 PM CT · Delta Center · Final MIL 96 – UTAH 128
← NBA / Mar 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL1925292396
UTAH30343034128
Team box
MIL·UTAH
32-78
field goals
48-89
15-44
3-pointers
18-48
17-23
free throws
14-20
35
rebounds
47
20
assists
34
20
turnovers
17
30
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Ace BaileyUTAH343394
Elijah HarklessUTAH3423210
Cody WilliamsUTAH272335
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH251681
Ryan RollinsMIL231535
Cam ThomasMIL231424

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
UTAH +37
MIL +37
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: UTAH 37 · MIL 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 61%, UTAH 39% · Updated Mar 19

Expected margin
MIL by 3.1
Expected score
MIL 120.4 – 117.3 UTAH
Expected total
237.7
BucksThe matchupJazz
−156Our fair odds+156
120.4Expected points117.3
−0.29Power rating−0.94
111.2Points / game117.2
116.2Allowed / game125.2
48.0FG%46.5
38.83P%34.9
41.0Rebounds / game43.8
28−40Season record20−49
2−8Last 102−8
Alex Antetokounmpo · Giannis AntetokounmpoOutBrice Sensabaugh · Isaiah Collier
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jusuf Nurkic
Keyonte George

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · UTAH chance
Our model fair61.0%39.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks−15661%————
UTAHUtah Jazz+15639%————
SpreadMIL by 3.1
MILMilwaukee Bucks−3.1our margin————
UTAHUtah Jazz+3.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.7
Over237.7our total————
Under237.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 3.1 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%
← MIL wins byUTAH wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more48%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more34%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

237.7 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.568%
Total over 237.549%
Total over 247.531%
Total from 228 to 24738%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
FOusmane Diengstarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Utah Jazz
GElijah Harklessstarted
GAndersson Garciastarted
GAce Baileystarted
FKyle Filipowskistarted
FCody Williamsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·UTAH
Mar 17 vs CLE
last game
Mar 18 at MIN
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 19, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · left knee; hyperextension; bone bruiseOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right knee; synovitisQuestionable
MILMyles Turner · right calf; strainQuestionable
MILKyle Kuzma · right elbow; contusionProbable
Utah Jazz
UTAHBrice Sensabaugh · n/a; illnessOut
UTAHIsaiah Collier · left hamstring; sorenessOut
UTAHJaren Jackson Jr. · left knee; injury recoveryOut
UTAHJusuf Nurkic · nose; injury recoveryOut
UTAHKeyonte George · right hamstring; strainOut
UTAHLauri Markkanen · right hip; impingementOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut
UTAHJohn Konchar · right quad; contusionDoubtful

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
MIL·UTAH
−0.29
rating (0 = average)
−0.94
111.2
points / game
117.2
116.2
points allowed / game
125.2
28−40
season record
20−49
16−19
home record
12−22
12−21
away record
8−27
L1
streak
L4
2−8
last 10
2−8
48.0
FG%
46.5
38.8
3P%
34.9
41.0
rebounds / game
43.8
25.9
assists / game
29.3
14.6
turnovers / game
15.7
42.9
points in paint / game
51.2

Rating Trend

MIL · UTAH · 135 days
Milwaukee BucksUtah Jazz
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · UTAH 3−6
Mar 7at MILMIL 113 − 99
Jan 27, 2025at UTAHMIL 125 − 110
Nov 7, 2024at MILMIL 123 − 100
Feb 4, 2024at UTAHUTAH 123 − 108
Jan 8, 2024at MILUTAH 132 − 116
Mar 24, 2023at UTAHMIL 144 − 116
Dec 17, 2022at MILMIL 123 − 97
Mar 14, 2022at UTAHMIL 117 − 111
Oct 31, 2021at MILUTAH 107 − 95

MIL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Mar 17vs CLE116 − 123L
Mar 15vs IND134 − 123W
Mar 14at ATL99 − 122L
Mar 12at MIA105 − 112L
Mar 10vs PHX114 − 129L
Mar 8vs ORL91 − 130L
Mar 7vs UTAH113 − 99W
Mar 4vs ATL113 − 131L
Mar 2vs BOS81 − 108L
Mar 1at CHI97 − 120L

UTAH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Mar 18at MIN111 − 147L
Mar 15at SAC111 − 116L
Mar 13at POR114 − 124L
Mar 11vs NY117 − 134L
Mar 9vs GS119 − 116W
Mar 7at MIL99 − 113L
Mar 5at WSH122 − 112W
Mar 4at PHI102 − 106L
Mar 2vs DEN125 − 128L
Feb 28vs NO105 − 115L