bayesRatings

Jazz at Timberwolves

NBA · Wednesday, Mar 18 · 7:00 PM CT · Target Center · Final UTAH 111 – MIN 147
← NBA / Mar 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
UTAH31272627111
MIN43293837147
Team box
UTAH·MIN
40-93
field goals
52-96
13-39
3-pointers
18-39
18-26
free throws
25-30
46
rebounds
46
26
assists
39
24
turnovers
17
48
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brice SensabaughUTAH374143
Ayo DosunmuMIN272396
Rudy GobertMIN2921120
Julius RandleMIN272118
Bones HylandMIN251832
Jaden McDanielsMIN261723

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +38
UTAH +38
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 38 · UTAH 5lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 18%, MIN 82% · Updated Mar 18

Expected margin
MIN by 13.0
Expected score
MIN 126.3 – 113.3 UTAH
Expected total
239.6
JazzThe matchupTimberwolves
+465Our fair odds−465
113.3Expected points126.3
−0.94Power rating+0.43
117.3Points / game118.4
124.9Allowed / game115.0
46.6FG%48.6
34.93P%37.3
43.8Rebounds / game44.4
20−48Season record42−27
2−8Last 106−4
Blake Hinson · Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jusuf Nurkic · Keyonte George
Lauri MarkkanenOut (5 each)Anthony Edwards · Enrique Freeman
Julian Phillips · Naz Reid
Rocco Zikarsky

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · MIN chance
Our model fair17.7%82.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Jazz+46518%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−46582%————
SpreadMIN by 13.0
UTAHUtah Jazz+13our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−13our margin————
Totalwe expect 239.6
Over239.6our total————
Under239.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 13.0 expected
Utah Jazz by 53 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 52 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 51 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 50 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 49 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 48 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 47 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 48 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 49 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 50 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 51 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 52 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 53 points: <1%
← UTAH wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more73%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more59%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more44%
Within 5 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

239.6 expected
189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 229.568%
Total over 239.549%
Total over 249.531%
Total from 230 to 24937%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Utah Jazz
GIsaiah Collierstarted
GAce Baileystarted
FKyle Filipowskistarted
FCody Williamsstarted
FBrice Sensabaughstarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAyo Dosunmustarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·MIN
Mar 15 at SAC
last game
Mar 17 vs PHX
2 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 18, 5:00 PM ET
Utah Jazz
UTAHBlake Hinson · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHJaren Jackson Jr. · left knee; injury recoveryOut
UTAHJusuf Nurkic · nose; injury recoveryOut
UTAHKeyonte George · right hamstring; strainOut
UTAHLauri Markkanen · right hip; impingementOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut
UTAHAce Bailey · concussion protocolQuestionable
UTAHJohn Konchar · left calf; injury managementProbable
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINAnthony Edwards · right knee; inflammationOut
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINJulian Phillips · g league - on assignmentOut
MINNaz Reid · right ankle; sprainOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINJaylen Clark · right calf; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
UTAH·MIN
−0.94
rating (0 = average)
+0.43
117.3
points / game
118.4
124.9
points allowed / game
115.0
20−48
season record
42−27
12−22
home record
23−12
8−26
away record
19−15
L3
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
6−4
46.6
FG%
48.6
34.9
3P%
37.3
43.8
rebounds / game
44.4
29.4
assists / game
26.1
15.6
turnovers / game
14.9
51.3
points in paint / game
49.9

Rating Trend

UTAH · MIN · 134 days
Utah JazzMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 8−2
Jan 20at UTAHUTAH 127 − 122
Nov 10, 2025at UTAHMIN 120 − 113
Nov 7, 2025at MINMIN 137 − 97
Apr 13, 2025at MINMIN 116 − 105
Mar 16, 2025at MINMIN 128 − 102
Feb 28, 2025at UTAHUTAH 117 − 116
Jan 30, 2025at UTAHMIN 138 − 113
Mar 18, 2024at UTAHMIN 114 − 104
Mar 16, 2024at UTAHMIN 119 − 100
Nov 30, 2023at MINMIN 101 − 90

UTAH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Mar 15at SAC111 − 116L
Mar 13at POR114 − 124L
Mar 11vs NY117 − 134L
Mar 9vs GS119 − 116W
Mar 7at MIL99 − 113L
Mar 5at WSH122 − 112W
Mar 4at PHI102 − 106L
Mar 2vs DEN125 − 128L
Feb 28vs NO105 − 115L
Feb 26vs NO118 − 129L

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 17vs PHX116 − 104W
Mar 15at OKC103 − 116L
Mar 13at GS127 − 117W
Mar 11at LAC128 − 153L
Mar 10at LAL106 − 120L
Mar 7vs ORL92 − 119L
Mar 5vs TOR115 − 107W
Mar 3vs MEM117 − 110W
Mar 1at DEN117 − 108W
Feb 26at LAC94 − 88W