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Cavaliers at Bucks

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 17 · 7:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final CLE 123 – MIL 116
← NBA / Mar 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE37202838123
MIL24342929116
Team box
CLE·MIL
42-86
field goals
42-88
12-36
3-pointers
20-45
27-34
free throws
12-17
46
rebounds
39
27
assists
24
7
turnovers
8
56
points in paint
34
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Evan MobleyCLE3327152
James HardenCLE342756
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL3325310
Bobby PortisMIL331994
Donovan MitchellCLE341983
Ryan RollinsMIL341934

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +15
CLE +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 5 · CLE 15lead changes: 16

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 66%, MIL 34% · Updated Mar 17

Expected margin
CLE by 7.0
Expected score
CLE 119.4 – 112.4 MIL
Expected total
231.8
CavaliersThe matchupBucks
−193Our fair odds+193
119.4Expected points112.4
+0.57Power rating−0.29
119.1Points / game111.2
114.9Allowed / game116.1
47.9FG%48.0
36.43P%38.7
44.2Rebounds / game41.0
41−27Season record28−39
5−5Last 102−8
Craig Porter Jr. · Jarrett Allen
Olivier Sarr · Tyrese ProctorOutAlex Antetokounmpo

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · MIL chance
Our model fair65.9%34.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Cavaliers−19366%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+19334%————
SpreadCLE by 7.0
CLECleveland Cavaliers−7our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+7our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.8
Over231.8our total————
Under231.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 7.0 expected
Cleveland Cavaliers by 48 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 48 points: <1%
← CLE wins byMIL wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more60%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more44%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more28%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.8 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.550%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Cleveland Cavaliers
GJames Hardenstarted
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GSam Merrillstarted
FDean Wadestarted
CEvan Mobleystarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FTaurean Princestarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CJericho Simsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·MIL
Mar 15 vs DAL
last game
Mar 15 vs IND
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 17, 5:00 PM ET
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLECraig Porter Jr. · left groin; strainOut
CLEJarrett Allen · right knee; tendonitisOut
CLEOlivier Sarr · g league - two-wayOut
CLETyrese Proctor · right quadricep; strainOut
CLESam Merrill · left hamstring; tightnessQuestionable
CLEJaylon Tyson · left ankle; sorenessProbable
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
MILMyles Turner · right calf; strainQuestionable
MILOusmane Dieng · n/a; illnessQuestionable
MILRyan Rollins · n/a; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 67+ games
CLE·MIL
+0.57
rating (0 = average)
−0.29
119.1
points / game
111.2
114.9
points allowed / game
116.1
41−27
season record
28−39
22−13
home record
16−18
19−14
away record
12−21
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
2−8
47.9
FG%
48.0
36.4
3P%
38.7
44.2
rebounds / game
41.0
28.3
assists / game
26.0
14.2
turnovers / game
14.7
50.9
points in paint / game
43.1

Rating Trend

CLE · MIL · 133 days
Cleveland CavaliersMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 2−8
Feb 25at MILMIL 118 − 116
Nov 17, 2025at CLECLE 118 − 106
Oct 26, 2025at CLECLE 118 − 113
Mar 9, 2025at MILCLE 112 − 100
Dec 20, 2024at CLECLE 124 − 101
Nov 4, 2024at CLECLE 116 − 114
Nov 2, 2024at MILCLE 114 − 113
Jan 26, 2024at MILCLE 112 − 100
Jan 24, 2024at MILMIL 126 − 116
Jan 17, 2024at CLECLE 135 − 95

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 15vs DAL120 − 130L
Mar 13at DAL138 − 105W
Mar 11at ORL122 − 128L
Mar 9vs PHI115 − 101W
Mar 8vs BOS98 − 109L
Mar 3vs DET113 − 109W
Mar 1at BKN106 − 102W
Feb 27at DET119 − 122L
Feb 25at MIL116 − 118L
Feb 24vs NY109 − 94W

MIL · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Mar 15vs IND134 − 123W
Mar 14at ATL99 − 122L
Mar 12at MIA105 − 112L
Mar 10vs PHX114 − 129L
Mar 8vs ORL91 − 130L
Mar 7vs UTAH113 − 99W
Mar 4vs ATL113 − 131L
Mar 2vs BOS81 − 108L
Mar 1at CHI97 − 120L
Feb 27vs NY98 − 127L