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Thunder at Wizards

NBA · Saturday, Mar 21 · 4:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final OKC 132 – WSH 111
← NBA / Mar 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC32373429132
WSH32323215111
Team box
OKC·WSH
50-93
field goals
41-91
11-30
3-pointers
16-39
21-30
free throws
13-18
55
rebounds
34
31
assists
28
13
turnovers
15
64
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC324037
Bilal CoulibalyWSH342144
Bub CarringtonWSH331933
Chet HolmgrenOKC2718100
Jared McCainOKC281831
Alex SarrWSH221458

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +25
OKC +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 5 · OKC 25lead changes: 15

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 90%, WSH 10% · Updated Mar 21

Expected margin
OKC by 19.6
Expected score
OKC 126.3 – 106.8 WSH
Expected total
233.1
ThunderThe matchupWizards
−936Our fair odds+936
126.3Expected points106.8
+1.21Power rating−1.25
118.5Points / game112.5
107.5Allowed / game123.7
48.2FG%46.1
36.03P%35.5
43.9Rebounds / game42.6
55−15Season record16−53
10−0Last 100−10
Branden Carlson · Jalen Williams
Luguentz Dort · Nikola Topic
Payton SandfortOut (5 each)Anthony Davis · Cam Whitmore
D'Angelo Russell · Julian Reese
Kyshawn George

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · WSH chance
Our model fair90.3%9.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−93690%————
WSHWashington Wizards+93610%————
SpreadOKC by 19.6
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−19.6our margin————
WSHWashington Wizards+19.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.1
Over233.1our total————
Under233.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 19.6 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 1%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 1%Washington Wizards by 2 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 3 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 4 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 5 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 6 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 7 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 8 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 9 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 10 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 11 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 12 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 13 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 14 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%
← OKC wins byWSH wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more91%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more79%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more62%
Within 5 points either way9%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.1 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.568%
Total over 233.548%
Total over 243.529%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
GAjay Mitchellstarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Washington Wizards
GBub Carringtonstarted
GBilal Coulibalystarted
GWill Rileystarted
FJustin Champagniestarted
CAlex Sarrstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·WSH
Mar 18 at BKN
last game
Mar 19 vs DET
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 21, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCBranden Carlson · low back; strainOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring; strainOut
OKCLuguentz Dort · left knee; contusionOut
OKCNikola Topic · g league - on assignmentOut
OKCPayton Sandfort · g league - two-wayOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Washington Wizards
WSHAnthony Davis · left finger; sprainOut
WSHCam Whitmore · right shoulder; deep vein thrombosisOut
WSHD'Angelo Russell · not with teamOut
WSHJulian Reese · g league - two-wayOut
WSHKyshawn George · left elbow; sprainOut
WSHLeaky Black · left ankle; sprainOut
WSHTrae Young · low back; pain; rightOut
WSHTre Johnson · right foot; sorenessOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 69+ games
OKC·WSH
+1.21
rating (0 = average)
−1.25
118.5
points / game
112.5
107.5
points allowed / game
123.7
55−15
season record
16−53
29−7
home record
11−25
26−8
away record
5−28
W10
streak
L14
10−0
last 10
0−10
48.2
FG%
46.1
36.0
3P%
35.5
43.9
rebounds / game
42.6
25.4
assists / game
25.0
12.6
turnovers / game
15.8
49.2
points in paint / game
46.9

Rating Trend

OKC · WSH · 137 days
Oklahoma City ThunderWashington Wizards
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · WSH 2−7
Oct 30, 2025at OKCOKC 127 − 108
Jan 12, 2025at WSHOKC 136 − 95
Dec 23, 2024at OKCOKC 123 − 105
Feb 23, 2024at OKCOKC 147 − 106
Jan 8, 2024at WSHOKC 136 − 128
Jan 6, 2023at OKCOKC 127 − 110
Nov 16, 2022at WSHOKC 121 − 120
Jan 11, 2022at WSHWSH 122 − 118
Nov 26, 2021at OKCWSH 101 − 99

OKC · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Mar 18at BKN121 − 92W
Mar 17at ORL113 − 108W
Mar 15vs MIN116 − 103W
Mar 12vs BOS104 − 102W
Mar 9vs DEN129 − 126W
Mar 7vs GS104 − 97W
Mar 4at NY103 − 100W
Mar 3at CHI116 − 108W
Mar 1at DAL100 − 87W
Feb 27vs DEN127 − 121W

WSH · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Mar 19vs DET95 − 117L
Mar 17vs DET117 − 130L
Mar 16vs GS117 − 125L
Mar 14at BOS100 − 111L
Mar 12at ORL131 − 136L
Mar 10at MIA129 − 150L
Mar 8at NO118 − 138L
Mar 5vs UTAH112 − 122L
Mar 3at ORL109 − 126L
Mar 2vs HOU118 − 123L