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Thunder at Nets

NBA · Wednesday, Mar 18 · 6:30 PM CT · Barclays Center · Final OKC 121 – BKN 92
← NBA / Mar 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC28323130121
BKN1113313792
Team box
OKC·BKN
45-85
field goals
29-79
14-35
3-pointers
11-35
17-22
free throws
23-31
45
rebounds
41
26
assists
17
19
turnovers
23
48
points in paint
34
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jared McCainOKC292632
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC262036
Aaron WigginsOKC341773
Jalen WilsonBKN191550
Nolan TraoreBKN271336
Isaiah JoeOKC231334

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BKN +42
OKC +42
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BKN 0 · OKC 42lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 88%, BKN 12% · Updated Mar 18

Expected margin
OKC by 17.1
Expected score
OKC 118.2 – 101.1 BKN
Expected total
219.3
ThunderThe matchupNets
−712Our fair odds+712
118.2Expected points101.1
+1.21Power rating−0.98
118.4Points / game106.6
107.7Allowed / game115.6
48.1FG%44.4
36.03P%34.3
43.9Rebounds / game40.2
54−15Season record17−51
9−1Last 102−8
Branden Carlson · Brooks Barnhizer
Isaiah Hartenstein · Jalen Williams
Luguentz DortOutBen Saraf · Day'Ron Sharpe
Egor Demin · Michael Porter Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · BKN chance
Our model fair87.7%12.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−71288%————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+71212%————
SpreadOKC by 17.1
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−17.1our margin————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+17.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 219.3
Over219.3our total————
Under219.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 17.1 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 44 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 45 points: <1%
← OKC wins byBKN wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more86%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more72%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more55%
Within 5 points either way12%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

219.3 expected
173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 209.569%
Total over 219.549%
Total over 229.530%
Total from 210 to 22939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GAaron Wigginsstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
GAjay Mitchellstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Brooklyn Nets
GDrake Powellstarted
GNolan Traorestarted
FNoah Clowneystarted
FDanny Wolfstarted
CNic Claxtonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·BKN
Mar 17 at ORL
last game
Mar 16 vs POR
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 18, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCBranden Carlson · low back; strainOut
OKCBrooks Barnhizer · g league - two-wayOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · left soleus; injury managementOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring; strainOut
OKCLuguentz Dort · restOut
OKCNikola Topic · g league - on assignmentOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
OKCChet Holmgren · left hip; contusionQuestionable
Brooklyn Nets
BKNBen Saraf · left foot; sorenessOut
BKNDay'Ron Sharpe · left thumb; ucl tearOut
BKNEgor Demin · left plantar fascia; injury managementOut
BKNMichael Porter Jr. · right ankle; sprain/ left hamstring tightnessOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
OKC·BKN
+1.21
rating (0 = average)
−0.98
118.4
points / game
106.6
107.7
points allowed / game
115.6
54−15
season record
17−51
29−7
home record
9−24
25−8
away record
8−27
W9
streak
L4
9−1
last 10
2−8
48.1
FG%
44.4
36.0
3P%
34.3
43.9
rebounds / game
40.2
25.4
assists / game
25.3
12.5
turnovers / game
15.9
49.2
points in paint / game
43.9

Rating Trend

OKC · BKN · 134 days
Oklahoma City ThunderBrooklyn Nets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · BKN 2−7
Feb 20at OKCOKC 105 − 86
Feb 26, 2025at BKNOKC 129 − 121
Jan 19, 2025at OKCOKC 127 − 101
Jan 5, 2024at BKNBKN 124 − 115
Dec 31, 2023at OKCOKC 124 − 108
Mar 14, 2023at OKCOKC 121 − 107
Jan 15, 2023at BKNOKC 112 − 102
Jan 13, 2022at BKNOKC 130 − 109
Nov 14, 2021at OKCBKN 120 − 96

OKC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W9
Mar 17at ORL113 − 108W
Mar 15vs MIN116 − 103W
Mar 12vs BOS104 − 102W
Mar 9vs DEN129 − 126W
Mar 7vs GS104 − 97W
Mar 4at NY103 − 100W
Mar 3at CHI116 − 108W
Mar 1at DAL100 − 87W
Feb 27vs DEN127 − 121W
Feb 25at DET116 − 124L

BKN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Mar 16vs POR95 − 114L
Mar 14at PHI97 − 104L
Mar 12at ATL97 − 108L
Mar 10vs DET100 − 138L
Mar 9vs MEM126 − 115W
Mar 7at DET107 − 105W
Mar 5at MIA110 − 126L
Mar 3at MIA98 − 124L
Mar 1vs CLE102 − 106L
Feb 27at BOS111 − 148L