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Thunder at Magic

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 17 · 6:00 PM CT · Kia Center · Final OKC 113 – ORL 108
← NBA / Mar 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC26253428113
ORL22282929108
Team box
OKC·ORL
40-90
field goals
37-93
9-29
3-pointers
17-50
24-27
free throws
17-20
53
rebounds
41
19
assists
21
12
turnovers
12
54
points in paint
32
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC364052
Paolo BancheroORL3632105
Chet HolmgrenOKC3320121
Ajay MitchellOKC281623
Desmond BaneORL361631
Jalen SuggsORL331476

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ORL +18
OKC +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ORL 7 · OKC 18lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 70%, ORL 30% · Updated Mar 17

Expected margin
OKC by 8.1
Expected score
OKC 114.9 – 106.8 ORL
Expected total
221.7
ThunderThe matchupMagic
−237Our fair odds+237
114.9Expected points106.8
+1.21Power rating+0.14
118.5Points / game115.6
107.7Allowed / game114.2
48.2FG%46.5
36.03P%34.0
43.8Rebounds / game43.8
53−15Season record38−29
9−1Last 107−3
Branden Carlson · Brooks Barnhizer
Jalen Williams · Nikola Topic
Thomas SorberOut (5 each)Alex Morales · Anthony Black
Colin Castleton · Franz Wagner
Jonathan Isaac

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · ORL chance
Our model fair70.3%29.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−23770%————
ORLOrlando Magic+23730%————
SpreadOKC by 8.1
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−8.1our margin————
ORLOrlando Magic+8.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.7
Over221.7our total————
Under221.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 8.1 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 44 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 45 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 46 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 47 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 48 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 49 points: <1%
← OKC wins byORL wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more63%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more47%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more31%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

221.7 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.570%
Total over 221.550%
Total over 231.530%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GAjay Mitchellstarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FTristan da Silvastarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·ORL
Mar 15 vs MIN
last game
Mar 16 at ATL
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
2
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 17, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCBranden Carlson · low back; strainOut
OKCBrooks Barnhizer · g league - two-wayOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring; strainOut
OKCNikola Topic · g league - on assignmentOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Orlando Magic
ORLAlex Morales · g league - two-wayOut
ORLAnthony Black · left lateral abdominal; strainOut
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLFranz Wagner · left high ankle; sprain injury managementOut
ORLJonathan Isaac · left knee; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 67+ games
OKC·ORL
+1.21
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
118.5
points / game
115.6
107.7
points allowed / game
114.2
53−15
season record
38−29
29−7
home record
22−12
24−8
away record
16−17
W8
streak
L1
9−1
last 10
7−3
48.2
FG%
46.5
36.0
3P%
34.0
43.8
rebounds / game
43.8
25.5
assists / game
26.5
12.5
turnovers / game
13.7
49.2
points in paint / game
51.8

Rating Trend

OKC · ORL · 133 days
Oklahoma City ThunderOrlando Magic
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ORL 2−7
Feb 3at OKCOKC 128 − 92
Dec 19, 2024at ORLOKC 105 − 99
Nov 4, 2024at OKCOKC 102 − 86
Feb 13, 2024at ORLOKC 127 − 113
Jan 13, 2024at OKCOKC 112 − 100
Jan 4, 2023at ORLORL 126 − 115
Nov 1, 2022at OKCOKC 116 − 108
Mar 23, 2022at OKCOKC 118 − 102
Mar 20, 2022at ORLORL 90 − 85

OKC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W8
Mar 15vs MIN116 − 103W
Mar 12vs BOS104 − 102W
Mar 9vs DEN129 − 126W
Mar 7vs GS104 − 97W
Mar 4at NY103 − 100W
Mar 3at CHI116 − 108W
Mar 1at DAL100 − 87W
Feb 27vs DEN127 − 121W
Feb 25at DET116 − 124L
Feb 24at TOR116 − 107W

ORL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Mar 16at ATL112 − 124L
Mar 14at MIA121 − 117W
Mar 12vs WSH136 − 131W
Mar 11vs CLE128 − 122W
Mar 8at MIL130 − 91W
Mar 7at MIN119 − 92W
Mar 5vs DAL115 − 114W
Mar 3vs WSH126 − 109W
Mar 1vs DET92 − 106L
Feb 26vs HOU108 − 113L