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Thunder at Celtics

NBA · Wednesday, Mar 25 · 6:30 PM CT · TD Garden · Final OKC 109 – BOS 119
← NBA / Mar 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC31223026109
BOS20293931119
Team box
OKC·BOS
38-80
field goals
38-81
12-37
3-pointers
18-41
21-26
free throws
25-29
35
rebounds
43
17
assists
25
7
turnovers
13
34
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC373328
Jaylen BrownBOS393188
Jayson TatumBOS3519127
Luguentz DortOKC221450
Payton PritchardBOS331421
Neemias QuetaBOS301352

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +14
OKC +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BOS 14 · OKC 13lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 56%, BOS 44% · Updated Mar 25

Expected margin
OKC by 2.1
Expected score
OKC 109.2 – 107.1 BOS
Expected total
216.3
ThunderThe matchupCeltics
−125Our fair odds+125
109.2Expected points107.1
+1.26Power rating+0.82
118.7Points / game114.1
107.5Allowed / game107.0
48.3FG%46.4
36.13P%36.0
44.1Rebounds / game46.5
57−15Season record47−24
10−0Last 106−4
Brooks Barnhizer · Nikola Topic
Payton Sandfort · Thomas SorberOutNikola Vucevic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · BOS chance
Our model fair55.6%44.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−12556%————
BOSBoston Celtics+12544%————
SpreadOKC by 2.1
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−2.1our margin————
BOSBoston Celtics+2.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 216.3
Over216.3our total————
Under216.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 2.1 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%
← OKC wins byBOS wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more46%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more31%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

216.3 expected
172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: 1%184 points: 1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 2%202 points: 2%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 1%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: <1%249 points: <1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 206.569%
Total over 216.549%
Total over 226.530%
Total from 207 to 22639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GJalen Williamsstarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
FJayson Tatumstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·BOS
Mar 23 at PHI
last game
Mar 22 vs MIN
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 25, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCBrooks Barnhizer · g league - two-wayOut
OKCNikola Topic · g league - on assignmentOut
OKCPayton Sandfort · g league - two-wayOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Boston Celtics
BOSNikola Vucevic · right ring finger; fractureOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 71+ games
OKC·BOS
+1.26
rating (0 = average)
+0.82
118.7
points / game
114.1
107.5
points allowed / game
107.0
57−15
season record
47−24
29−7
home record
24−11
28−8
away record
23−13
W12
streak
L1
10−0
last 10
6−4
48.3
FG%
46.4
36.1
3P%
36.0
44.1
rebounds / game
46.5
25.6
assists / game
24.4
12.6
turnovers / game
12.2
49.5
points in paint / game
44.1

Rating Trend

OKC · BOS · 141 days
Oklahoma City ThunderBoston Celtics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · BOS 4−5
Mar 12at OKCOKC 104 − 102
Mar 12, 2025at BOSOKC 118 − 112
Jan 5, 2025at OKCOKC 105 − 92
Apr 3, 2024at BOSBOS 135 − 100
Jan 2, 2024at OKCOKC 127 − 123
Jan 3, 2023at OKCOKC 150 − 117
Nov 14, 2022at BOSBOS 126 − 122
Mar 21, 2022at OKCBOS 132 − 123
Nov 20, 2021at BOSBOS 111 − 105

OKC · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Mar 23at PHI123 − 103W
Mar 21at WSH132 − 111W
Mar 18at BKN121 − 92W
Mar 17at ORL113 − 108W
Mar 15vs MIN116 − 103W
Mar 12vs BOS104 − 102W
Mar 9vs DEN129 − 126W
Mar 7vs GS104 − 97W
Mar 4at NY103 − 100W
Mar 3at CHI116 − 108W

BOS · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Mar 22vs MIN92 − 102L
Mar 20at MEM117 − 112W
Mar 18vs GS120 − 99W
Mar 16vs PHX120 − 112W
Mar 14vs WSH111 − 100W
Mar 12at OKC102 − 104L
Mar 10at SA116 − 125L
Mar 8at CLE109 − 98W
Mar 6vs DAL120 − 100W
Mar 4vs CHA89 − 118L