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Timberwolves at Celtics

NBA · Sunday, Mar 22 · 7:00 PM CT · TD Garden · Final MIN 102 – BOS 92
← NBA / Mar 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN14332926102
BOS2321331592
Team box
MIN·BOS
39-91
field goals
34-95
12-33
3-pointers
9-33
12-15
free throws
15-18
56
rebounds
53
24
assists
17
14
turnovers
11
46
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaylen BrownBOS352974
Bones HylandMIN292333
Jaden McDanielsMIN331963
Ayo DosunmuMIN321786
Jayson TatumBOS3116112
Derrick WhiteBOS361561

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +16
MIN +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BOS 15 · MIN 16lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 36%, BOS 64% · Updated Mar 22

Expected margin
BOS by 5.2
Expected score
BOS 112.9 – 107.7 MIN
Expected total
220.6
TimberwolvesThe matchupCeltics
+180Our fair odds−180
107.7Expected points112.9
+0.43Power rating+0.83
118.6Points / game114.4
114.8Allowed / game107.0
48.5FG%46.5
37.33P%36.1
44.4Rebounds / game46.4
43−28Season record47−23
5−5Last 107−3
Anthony Edwards · Enrique Freeman
Rocco ZikarskyOutJohn Tonje · Nikola Vucevic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · BOS chance
Our model fair35.7%64.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+18036%————
BOSBoston Celtics−18064%————
SpreadBOS by 5.2
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+5.2our margin————
BOSBoston Celtics−5.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 220.6
Over220.6our total————
Under220.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 5.2 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%
← MIN wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more54%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more39%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

220.6 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 210.569%
Total over 220.550%
Total over 230.530%
Total from 211 to 23039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAyo Dosunmustarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
FJayson Tatumstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·BOS
Mar 20 vs POR
last game
Mar 20 at MEM
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 22, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINAnthony Edwards · right knee; patellofemoral pain syndromeOut
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINNaz Reid · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
Boston Celtics
BOSJohn Tonje · g league - two-wayOut
BOSNikola Vucevic · right ring finger; fractureOut
BOSAmari Williams · g league - on assignmentQuestionable
BOSMax Shulga · g league - on assignmentQuestionable
BOSJaylen Brown · left quad; contusionProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
MIN·BOS
+0.43
rating (0 = average)
+0.83
118.6
points / game
114.4
114.8
points allowed / game
107.0
43−28
season record
47−23
24−13
home record
24−10
19−15
away record
23−13
L1
streak
W4
5−5
last 10
7−3
48.5
FG%
46.5
37.3
3P%
36.1
44.4
rebounds / game
46.4
26.2
assists / game
24.5
14.9
turnovers / game
12.3
50.0
points in paint / game
44.0

Rating Trend

MIN · BOS · 138 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesBoston Celtics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · BOS 6−3
Nov 29, 2025at MINMIN 119 − 115
Jan 2, 2025at MINBOS 118 − 115
Nov 24, 2024at BOSBOS 107 − 105
Jan 10, 2024at BOSBOS 127 − 120
Nov 6, 2023at MINMIN 114 − 109
Mar 15, 2023at MINBOS 104 − 102
Dec 23, 2022at BOSBOS 121 − 109
Mar 27, 2022at BOSBOS 134 − 112
Dec 27, 2021at MINMIN 108 − 103

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 20vs POR104 − 108L
Mar 18vs UTAH147 − 111W
Mar 17vs PHX116 − 104W
Mar 15at OKC103 − 116L
Mar 13at GS127 − 117W
Mar 11at LAC128 − 153L
Mar 10at LAL106 − 120L
Mar 7vs ORL92 − 119L
Mar 5vs TOR115 − 107W
Mar 3vs MEM117 − 110W

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Mar 20at MEM117 − 112W
Mar 18vs GS120 − 99W
Mar 16vs PHX120 − 112W
Mar 14vs WSH111 − 100W
Mar 12at OKC102 − 104L
Mar 10at SA116 − 125L
Mar 8at CLE109 − 98W
Mar 6vs DAL120 − 100W
Mar 4vs CHA89 − 118L
Mar 2at MIL108 − 81W