bayesRatings

Trail Blazers at Timberwolves

NBA · Friday, Mar 20 · 7:00 PM CT · Target Center · Final POR 108 – MIN 104
← NBA / Mar 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
POR33351921108
MIN28312718104
Team box
POR·MIN
39-92
field goals
36-91
9-37
3-pointers
9-28
21-24
free throws
23-29
51
rebounds
43
25
assists
21
17
turnovers
13
54
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jerami GrantPOR322651
Deni AvdijaPOR362585
Donovan ClinganPOR3121124
Julius RandleMIN371954
Rudy GobertMIN3818151
Ayo DosunmuMIN3817108

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +18
POR +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 3 · POR 18lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was POR 32%, MIN 68% · Updated Mar 20

Expected margin
MIN by 7.0
Expected score
MIN 118.3 – 111.3 POR
Expected total
229.6
Trail BlazersThe matchupTimberwolves
+217Our fair odds−217
111.3Expected points118.3
−0.17Power rating+0.43
115.2Points / game118.8
117.3Allowed / game114.9
45.2FG%48.7
33.93P%37.4
45.9Rebounds / game44.5
34−36Season record43−27
5−5Last 106−4
Caleb Love · Chris Youngblood
Damian Lillard · Hansen Yang
Shaedon SharpeOutAnthony Edwards · Enrique Freeman
Rocco Zikarsky

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
POR chance · MIN chance
Our model fair31.5%68.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PORPortland Trail Blazers+21732%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−21768%————
SpreadMIN by 7.0
PORPortland Trail Blazers+7our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−7our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.6
Over229.6our total————
Under229.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 7.0 expected
Portland Trail Blazers by 49 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 48 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 47 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 46 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 48 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 49 points: <1%
← POR wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more59%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more43%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.6 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Portland Trail Blazers
GJrue Holidaystarted
FJerami Grantstarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAyo Dosunmustarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
POR·MIN
Mar 18 at IND
last game
Mar 18 vs UTAH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 20, 5:00 PM ET
Portland Trail Blazers
PORCaleb Love · g league - two-wayOut
PORChris Youngblood · g league - two-wayOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORHansen Yang · g league - on assignmentOut
PORShaedon Sharpe · left fibula; stress reactionOut
PORVit Krejci · left calf; contusionQuestionable
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINAnthony Edwards · right knee; inflammation with patellofemoral pain syndromeOut
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINNaz Reid · right ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
POR·MIN
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.43
115.2
points / game
118.8
117.3
points allowed / game
114.9
34−36
season record
43−27
18−16
home record
24−12
16−20
away record
19−15
W2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
6−4
45.2
FG%
48.7
33.9
3P%
37.4
45.9
rebounds / game
44.5
25.0
assists / game
26.3
17.3
turnovers / game
14.9
48.4
points in paint / game
50.1

Rating Trend

POR · MIN · 136 days
Portland Trail BlazersMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 8−2
Feb 24at PORMIN 124 − 121
Feb 11at MINMIN 133 − 109
Oct 22, 2025at PORMIN 118 − 114
Feb 8, 2025at MINMIN 114 − 98
Nov 13, 2024at PORPOR 106 − 98
Nov 12, 2024at PORPOR 122 − 108
Nov 8, 2024at MINMIN 127 − 102
Mar 4, 2024at MINMIN 119 − 114
Feb 15, 2024at PORMIN 128 − 91
Feb 13, 2024at PORMIN 121 − 109

POR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Mar 18at IND127 − 119W
Mar 16at BKN114 − 95W
Mar 15at PHI103 − 109L
Mar 13vs UTAH124 − 114W
Mar 10vs CHA101 − 103L
Mar 8vs IND131 − 111W
Mar 6at HOU99 − 106L
Mar 4at MEM122 − 114W
Mar 1at ATL101 − 135L
Feb 28at CHA93 − 109L

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Mar 18vs UTAH147 − 111W
Mar 17vs PHX116 − 104W
Mar 15at OKC103 − 116L
Mar 13at GS127 − 117W
Mar 11at LAC128 − 153L
Mar 10at LAL106 − 120L
Mar 7vs ORL92 − 119L
Mar 5vs TOR115 − 107W
Mar 3vs MEM117 − 110W
Mar 1at DEN117 − 108W