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Trail Blazers at Pacers

NBA · Wednesday, Mar 18 · 6:30 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final POR 127 – IND 119
← NBA / Mar 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
POR37422622127
IND33292433119
Team box
POR·IND
45-101
field goals
46-91
16-46
3-pointers
12-27
21-26
free throws
15-17
52
rebounds
39
32
assists
32
13
turnovers
12
54
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Deni AvdijaPOR3232115
Donovan ClinganPOR2528132
Ivica ZubacIND231883
Jalen SlawsonIND371774
Toumani CamaraPOR301721
Jrue HolidayPOR321538

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +22
POR +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 0 · POR 22lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was POR 54%, IND 46% · Updated Mar 18

Expected margin
POR by 0.9
Expected score
POR 116.5 – 115.5 IND
Expected total
232.0
Trail BlazersThe matchupPacers
−117Our fair odds+117
116.5Expected points115.5
−0.17Power rating−0.52
115.1Points / game111.2
117.2Allowed / game120.1
45.2FG%45.1
33.93P%34.9
45.8Rebounds / game42.1
33−36Season record15−54
5−5Last 100−10
Caleb Love · Chris Youngblood
Damian Lillard · Hansen Yang
Shaedon SharpeOutJohnny Furphy · Obi Toppin
Pascal Siakam · Tyrese Haliburton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
POR chance · IND chance
Our model fair54.0%46.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PORPortland Trail Blazers−11754%————
INDIndiana Pacers+11746%————
SpreadPOR by 0.9
PORPortland Trail Blazers−0.9our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.0
Over232.0our total————
Under232.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Portland Trail Blazers by 0.9 expected
Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%
← POR wins byIND wins by →
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 5 or more42%
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 10 or more29%
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.0 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.568%
Total over 232.548%
Total over 242.529%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Portland Trail Blazers
GJrue Holidaystarted
FJerami Grantstarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted
Indiana Pacers
GT.J. McConnellstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
FJalen Slawsonstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
CIvica Zubacstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
POR·IND
Mar 16 at BKN
last game
Mar 17 at NY
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 18, 5:00 PM ET
Portland Trail Blazers
PORCaleb Love · g league - two-wayOut
PORChris Youngblood · g league - two-wayOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORHansen Yang · g league - on assignmentOut
PORShaedon Sharpe · left fibula; stress reactionOut
PORVit Krejci · left calf; contusionOut
PORRobert Williams III · left knee; injury managementQuestionable
Indiana Pacers
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl; tearOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; injury managementOut
INDPascal Siakam · right knee; sprainOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDAaron Nesmith · right ankle; injury managementQuestionable
INDAndrew Nembhard · right calf; contusionQuestionable
INDBen Sheppard · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayQuestionable
INDIvica Zubac · low back; sorenessQuestionable
INDJalen Slawson · g league - two-wayQuestionable
and 4 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 69+ games
POR·IND
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.52
115.1
points / game
111.2
117.2
points allowed / game
120.1
33−36
season record
15−54
18−16
home record
10−24
15−20
away record
5−30
W1
streak
L14
5−5
last 10
0−10
45.2
FG%
45.1
33.9
3P%
34.9
45.8
rebounds / game
42.1
24.9
assists / game
26.6
17.4
turnovers / game
14.5
48.3
points in paint / game
45.4

Rating Trend

POR · IND · 134 days
Portland Trail BlazersIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · IND 3−6
Mar 8at PORPOR 131 − 111
Feb 4, 2025at PORPOR 112 − 89
Nov 27, 2024at INDIND 121 − 114
Jan 19, 2024at PORPOR 118 − 115
Nov 27, 2023at INDPOR 114 − 110
Jan 6, 2023at INDIND 108 − 99
Dec 4, 2022at PORPOR 116 − 100
Mar 20, 2022at INDIND 129 − 98
Nov 5, 2021at PORPOR 110 − 106

POR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 16at BKN114 − 95W
Mar 15at PHI103 − 109L
Mar 13vs UTAH124 − 114W
Mar 10vs CHA101 − 103L
Mar 8vs IND131 − 111W
Mar 6at HOU99 − 106L
Mar 4at MEM122 − 114W
Mar 1at ATL101 − 135L
Feb 28at CHA93 − 109L
Feb 26at CHI121 − 112W

IND · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Mar 17at NY110 − 136L
Mar 15at MIL123 − 134L
Mar 13vs NY92 − 101L
Mar 12vs PHX108 − 123L
Mar 10at SAC109 − 114L
Mar 8at POR111 − 131L
Mar 6at LAL117 − 128L
Mar 4at LAC107 − 130L
Mar 1vs MEM106 − 125L
Feb 26vs CHA109 − 133L