bayesRatings

Celtics at Grizzlies

NBA · Friday, Mar 20 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final BOS 117 – MEM 112
← NBA / Mar 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BOS29262933117
MEM27273424112
Team box
BOS·MEM
40-89
field goals
42-90
11-42
3-pointers
14-43
26-30
free throws
14-17
57
rebounds
35
19
assists
24
13
turnovers
9
52
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaylen BrownBOS383066
Tyler BurtonMEM322352
Luka GarzaBOS272271
Payton PritchardBOS321963
Ty JeromeMEM251617
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM311472

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +9
BOS +9
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 7 · BOS 9lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 72%, MEM 28% · Updated Mar 20

Expected margin
BOS by 8.5
Expected score
BOS 117.4 – 108.9 MEM
Expected total
226.3
CelticsThe matchupGrizzlies
−259Our fair odds+259
117.4Expected points108.9
+0.83Power rating−0.33
114.4Points / game115.7
107.0Allowed / game118.6
46.6FG%46.1
36.33P%35.5
46.3Rebounds / game43.5
46−23Season record24−44
7−3Last 102−8
John Tonje · Nikola VucevicOutBrandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Jahmai Mashack · Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Santi Aldama

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · MEM chance
Our model fair72.1%27.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Celtics−25972%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+25928%————
SpreadBOS by 8.5
BOSBoston Celtics−8.5our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+8.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.3
Over226.3our total————
Under226.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 8.5 expected
Boston Celtics by 49 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 48 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 47 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 48 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 49 points: <1%
← BOS wins byMEM wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more64%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more48%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more32%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.3 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
FJayson Tatumstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GTy Jeromestarted
GJavon Smallstarted
FOlivier-Maxence Prosperstarted
FTaylor Hendricksstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·MEM
Mar 18 vs GS
last game
Mar 18 vs DEN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 20, 5:00 PM ET
Boston Celtics
BOSJohn Tonje · g league - two-wayOut
BOSNikola Vucevic · right ring finger; fractureOut
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMJahmai Mashack · left ankle; sprainOut
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right 5th finger; surgery recoveryOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · right great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; surgery recoveryOut
MEMGG Jackson · left knee; sorenessDoubtful
MEMTaj Gibson · right foot; sorenessDoubtful

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
BOS·MEM
+0.83
rating (0 = average)
−0.33
114.4
points / game
115.7
107.0
points allowed / game
118.6
46−23
season record
24−44
24−10
home record
13−20
22−13
away record
11−24
W3
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
2−8
46.6
FG%
46.1
36.3
3P%
35.5
46.3
rebounds / game
43.5
24.6
assists / game
28.5
12.2
turnovers / game
15.2
43.9
points in paint / game
49.3

Rating Trend

BOS · MEM · 136 days
Boston CelticsMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MEM 1−8
Nov 12, 2025at BOSBOS 131 − 95
Mar 31, 2025at MEMBOS 117 − 103
Dec 7, 2024at BOSMEM 127 − 121
Feb 4, 2024at BOSBOS 131 − 91
Nov 19, 2023at MEMBOS 102 − 100
Feb 12, 2023at BOSBOS 119 − 109
Nov 7, 2022at MEMBOS 109 − 106
Apr 10, 2022at MEMBOS 139 − 110
Mar 3, 2022at BOSBOS 120 − 107

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Mar 18vs GS120 − 99W
Mar 16vs PHX120 − 112W
Mar 14vs WSH111 − 100W
Mar 12at OKC102 − 104L
Mar 10at SA116 − 125L
Mar 8at CLE109 − 98W
Mar 6vs DAL120 − 100W
Mar 4vs CHA89 − 118L
Mar 2at MIL108 − 81W
Mar 1vs PHI114 − 98W

MEM · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Mar 18vs DEN125 − 118W
Mar 16at CHI107 − 132L
Mar 13at DET110 − 126L
Mar 12vs DAL112 − 120L
Mar 10at PHI129 − 139L
Mar 9at BKN115 − 126L
Mar 7vs LAC120 − 123L
Mar 4vs POR114 − 122L
Mar 3at MIN110 − 117L
Mar 1at IND125 − 106W