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Thunder at 76ers

NBA · Monday, Mar 23 · 6:00 PM CT · Xfinity Mobile Arena · Final OKC 123 – PHI 103
← NBA / Mar 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC35303226123
PHI25183624103
Team box
OKC·PHI
48-90
field goals
41-94
18-41
3-pointers
17-46
9-10
free throws
4-9
48
rebounds
44
33
assists
29
15
turnovers
18
52
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
VJ EdgecombePHI393564
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC292255
Jaylin WilliamsOKC191884
Jalen WilliamsOKC201846
Chet HolmgrenOKC301794
Trendon WatfordPHI221564

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +24
OKC +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHI 3 · OKC 24lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 76%, PHI 24% · Updated Mar 23

Expected margin
OKC by 11.0
Expected score
OKC 119.2 – 108.2 PHI
Expected total
227.4
ThunderThe matchup76ers
−324Our fair odds+324
119.2Expected points108.2
+1.21Power rating−0.17
118.7Points / game115.8
107.5Allowed / game116.1
48.3FG%46.1
36.03P%34.2
44.1Rebounds / game43.4
56−15Season record39−32
10−0Last 106−4
Ajay Mitchell · Nikola Topic
Payton Sandfort · Thomas SorberOutJoel Embiid · Johni Broome
Kelly Oubre Jr. · Paul George
Tyrese Maxey

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · PHI chance
Our model fair76.4%23.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−32476%————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+32424%————
SpreadOKC by 11.0
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−11our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+11our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.4
Over227.4our total————
Under227.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 11.0 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 47 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 48 points: <1%
← OKC wins byPHI wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more71%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more55%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more38%
Within 5 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.4 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.549%
Total over 237.530%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GJalen Williamsstarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Philadelphia 76ers
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FMarJon Beauchampstarted
FJustin Edwardsstarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CAdem Bonastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·PHI
Mar 21 at WSH
last game
Mar 21 at UTAH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 23, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAjay Mitchell · league suspensionOut
OKCNikola Topic · g league - on assignmentOut
OKCPayton Sandfort · g league - two-wayOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIJoel Embiid · right oblique; strainOut
PHIJohni Broome · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
PHIKelly Oubre Jr. · strain left elbow; sprainOut
PHIPaul George · league suspensionOut
PHITyrese Maxey · right finger; tendonOut
PHIDominick Barlow · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
PHIQuentin Grimes · n/a; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 71+ games
OKC·PHI
+1.21
rating (0 = average)
−0.17
118.7
points / game
115.8
107.5
points allowed / game
116.1
56−15
season record
39−32
29−7
home record
20−16
27−8
away record
19−16
W11
streak
W2
10−0
last 10
6−4
48.3
FG%
46.1
36.0
3P%
34.2
44.1
rebounds / game
43.4
25.5
assists / game
24.6
12.6
turnovers / game
13.8
49.4
points in paint / game
50.2

Rating Trend

OKC · PHI · 139 days
Oklahoma City ThunderPhiladelphia 76ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · PHI 5−4
Dec 28, 2025at OKCOKC 129 − 104
Mar 19, 2025at OKCOKC 133 − 100
Jan 14, 2025at PHIOKC 118 − 102
Apr 2, 2024at PHIPHI 109 − 105
Nov 25, 2023at OKCPHI 127 − 123
Jan 12, 2023at PHIOKC 133 − 114
Dec 31, 2022at OKCPHI 115 − 96
Feb 11, 2022at PHIPHI 100 − 87
Oct 24, 2021at OKCPHI 115 − 103

OKC · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Mar 21at WSH132 − 111W
Mar 18at BKN121 − 92W
Mar 17at ORL113 − 108W
Mar 15vs MIN116 − 103W
Mar 12vs BOS104 − 102W
Mar 9vs DEN129 − 126W
Mar 7vs GS104 − 97W
Mar 4at NY103 − 100W
Mar 3at CHI116 − 108W
Mar 1at DAL100 − 87W

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Mar 21at UTAH126 − 116W
Mar 19at SAC139 − 118W
Mar 17at DEN96 − 124L
Mar 15vs POR109 − 103W
Mar 14vs BKN104 − 97W
Mar 12at DET109 − 131L
Mar 10vs MEM139 − 129W
Mar 9at CLE101 − 115L
Mar 7at ATL116 − 125L
Mar 4vs UTAH106 − 102W