bayesRatings

76ers at Jazz

NBA · Saturday, Mar 21 · 8:30 PM CT · Delta Center · Final PHI 126 – UTAH 116
← NBA / Mar 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI38263131126
UTAH34362422116
Team box
PHI·UTAH
46-92
field goals
39-96
6-27
3-pointers
9-40
28-32
free throws
29-31
56
rebounds
39
27
assists
29
16
turnovers
8
74
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Ace BaileyUTAH332574
Quentin GrimesPHI362554
VJ EdgecombePHI3922134
Trendon WatfordPHI242094
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH371954
Cameron PaynePHI271637

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
UTAH +10
PHI +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: UTAH 8 · PHI 10lead changes: 19

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 64%, UTAH 36% · Updated Mar 21

Expected margin
PHI by 4.3
Expected score
PHI 122.5 – 118.1 UTAH
Expected total
240.6
76ersThe matchupJazz
−176Our fair odds+176
122.5Expected points118.1
−0.17Power rating−0.94
115.6Points / game117.3
116.1Allowed / game124.8
46.0FG%46.6
34.43P%34.9
43.2Rebounds / game43.9
38−32Season record21−49
5−5Last 103−7
Joel Embiid · Johni Broome
Kelly Oubre Jr. · Paul George
Tyrese MaxeyOut (5 each)Brice Sensabaugh · Isaiah Collier
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jusuf Nurkic
Keyonte George

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · UTAH chance
Our model fair63.7%36.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers−17664%————
UTAHUtah Jazz+17636%————
SpreadPHI by 4.3
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers−4.3our margin————
UTAHUtah Jazz+4.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 240.6
Over240.6our total————
Under240.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia 76ers by 4.3 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%
← PHI wins byUTAH wins by →
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 5 or more52%
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 10 or more37%
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

240.6 expected
190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 230.568%
Total over 240.549%
Total over 250.531%
Total from 231 to 25037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GQuentin Grimesstarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FJustin Edwardsstarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CAdem Bonastarted
Utah Jazz
GElijah Harklessstarted
GAce Baileystarted
GBez Mbengstarted
FKyle Filipowskistarted
FCody Williamsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·UTAH
Mar 19 at SAC
last game
Mar 19 vs MIL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 21, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIJoel Embiid · right oblique; strainOut
PHIJohni Broome · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
PHIKelly Oubre Jr. · left elbow; sprainOut
PHIPaul George · league suspensionOut
PHITyrese Maxey · right finger; tendon strainOut
Utah Jazz
UTAHBrice Sensabaugh · n/a; illnessOut
UTAHIsaiah Collier · left hamstring; sorenessOut
UTAHJaren Jackson Jr. · left knee; injury recoveryOut
UTAHJusuf Nurkic · nose; injury recoveryOut
UTAHKeyonte George · right hamstring; strainOut
UTAHLauri Markkanen · right hip; impingementOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut
UTAHJohn Konchar · right quad; contusionProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
PHI·UTAH
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.94
115.6
points / game
117.3
116.1
points allowed / game
124.8
38−32
season record
21−49
20−16
home record
13−22
18−16
away record
8−27
W1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
3−7
46.0
FG%
46.6
34.4
3P%
34.9
43.2
rebounds / game
43.9
24.5
assists / game
29.4
13.8
turnovers / game
15.8
49.8
points in paint / game
51.2

Rating Trend

PHI · UTAH · 137 days
Philadelphia 76ersUtah Jazz
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · UTAH 3−6
Mar 4at PHIPHI 106 − 102
Mar 9, 2025at PHIPHI 126 − 122
Dec 28, 2024at UTAHPHI 114 − 111
Feb 1, 2024at UTAHPHI 127 − 124
Jan 6, 2024at PHIUTAH 120 − 109
Jan 14, 2023at UTAHPHI 118 − 117
Nov 13, 2022at PHIPHI 105 − 98
Dec 9, 2021at PHIUTAH 118 − 96
Nov 16, 2021at UTAHUTAH 120 − 85

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 19at SAC139 − 118W
Mar 17at DEN96 − 124L
Mar 15vs POR109 − 103W
Mar 14vs BKN104 − 97W
Mar 12at DET109 − 131L
Mar 10vs MEM139 − 129W
Mar 9at CLE101 − 115L
Mar 7at ATL116 − 125L
Mar 4vs UTAH106 − 102W
Mar 3vs SA91 − 131L

UTAH · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Mar 19vs MIL128 − 96W
Mar 18at MIN111 − 147L
Mar 15at SAC111 − 116L
Mar 13at POR114 − 124L
Mar 11vs NY117 − 134L
Mar 9vs GS119 − 116W
Mar 7at MIL99 − 113L
Mar 5at WSH122 − 112W
Mar 4at PHI102 − 106L
Mar 2vs DEN125 − 128L