bayesRatings

Spurs at Nuggets

NBA · Saturday, Apr 4 · 2:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final SA 134 – DEN 136
← NBA / Apr 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
SA4329242810134
DEN3629273212136
Team box
SA·DEN
47-101
field goals
49-101
15-45
3-pointers
19-46
25-27
free throws
19-22
50
rebounds
44
29
assists
34
11
turnovers
6
54
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nikola JokicDEN4440813
Victor WembanyamaSA4034187
Christian BraunDEN392184
Stephon CastleSA402059
Devin VassellSA391852
Julian ChampagnieSA331852

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +13
SA +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: DEN 5 · SA 13lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 50%, DEN 50% · Updated Apr 4

Expected margin
SA by 1.3
Expected score
SA 119.6 – 118.2 DEN
Expected total
237.8
SpursThe matchupNuggets
−102Our fair odds+102
119.6Expected points118.2
+0.74Power rating+0.50
119.5Points / game121.4
111.3Allowed / game116.6
48.4FG%49.6
35.83P%39.5
47.0Rebounds / game43.6
59−19Season record49−28
10−0Last 108−2
David Jones Garcia · Emanuel MillerOutPeyton Watson · Spencer Jones
Zeke Nnaji

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · DEN chance
Our model fair50.4%49.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs−10250%————
DENDenver Nuggets+10250%————
SpreadSA by 1.3
SASan Antonio Spurs−1.3our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.8
Over237.8our total————
Under237.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 1.3 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%
← SA wins byDEN wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more43%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more29%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

237.8 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.568%
Total over 237.549%
Total over 247.531%
Total from 228 to 24737%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·DEN
Apr 2 at LAC
last game
Apr 1 at UTAH
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 4, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · right ankle; surgeryOut
SAEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
Denver Nuggets
DENPeyton Watson · right hamstring; strainOut
DENSpencer Jones · right hamstring; strainOut
DENZeke Nnaji · left hip; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 77+ games
SA·DEN
+0.74
rating (0 = average)
+0.50
119.5
points / game
121.4
111.3
points allowed / game
116.6
59−19
season record
49−28
29−7
home record
24−13
30−12
away record
25−15
W11
streak
W7
10−0
last 10
8−2
48.4
FG%
49.6
35.8
3P%
39.5
47.0
rebounds / game
43.6
28.0
assists / game
28.8
13.5
turnovers / game
13.0
51.6
points in paint / game
49.1

Rating Trend

SA · DEN · 151 days
San Antonio SpursDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 5−5
Mar 12at SADEN 136 − 131
Nov 28, 2025at DENSA 139 − 136
Apr 2, 2025at DENSA 113 − 106
Jan 4, 2025at SADEN 122 − 111
Jan 3, 2025at DENSA 113 − 110
Apr 12, 2024at SASA 121 − 120
Apr 2, 2024at DENDEN 110 − 105
Mar 15, 2024at SADEN 117 − 106
Nov 26, 2023at DENDEN 132 − 120
Mar 10, 2023at SASA 128 − 120

SA · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Apr 2at LAC118 − 99W
Apr 1at GS127 − 113W
Mar 30vs CHI129 − 114W
Mar 28at MIL127 − 95W
Mar 25at MEM123 − 98W
Mar 23at MIA136 − 111W
Mar 21vs IND134 − 119W
Mar 19vs PHX101 − 100W
Mar 17at SAC132 − 104W
Mar 16at LAC119 − 115W

DEN · Last 10

8−2 · streak W7
Apr 1at UTAH130 − 117W
Mar 29vs GS116 − 93W
Mar 27vs UTAH135 − 129W
Mar 25vs DAL142 − 135W
Mar 24at PHX125 − 123W
Mar 22vs POR128 − 112W
Mar 20vs TOR121 − 115W
Mar 18at MEM118 − 125L
Mar 17vs PHI124 − 96W
Mar 14at LAL125 − 127L