bayesRatings

Spurs at Warriors

NBA · Wednesday, Apr 1 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final SA 127 – GS 113
← NBA / Apr 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA35352631127
GS26233430113
Team box
SA·GS
44-93
field goals
42-86
15-47
3-pointers
14-35
24-30
free throws
15-18
48
rebounds
39
34
assists
29
15
turnovers
15
52
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Victor WembanyamaSA2941183
Nate WilliamsGS471841
Omer YurtsevenGS291784
LJ CryerGS231713
Stephon CastleSA3315711
Julian ChampagnieSA261532

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +26
SA +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 0 · SA 26lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 61%, GS 39% · Updated Apr 1

Expected margin
SA by 4.1
Expected score
SA 116.9 – 112.8 GS
Expected total
229.7
SpursThe matchupWarriors
−157Our fair odds+157
116.9Expected points112.8
+0.74Power rating+0.06
119.4Points / game114.9
111.4Allowed / game114.9
48.3FG%46.1
35.83P%35.4
46.9Rebounds / game42.6
57−19Season record36−39
9−1Last 104−6
David Jones Garcia · Emanuel Miller
Harrison Ingram · Luke KornetOutAl Horford · De'Anthony Melton
Jimmy Butler III · Kristaps Porzingis
Moses Moody

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · GS chance
Our model fair61.1%38.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs−15761%————
GSGolden State Warriors+15739%————
SpreadSA by 4.1
SASan Antonio Spurs−4.1our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors+4.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.7
Over229.7our total————
Under229.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 4.1 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%
← SA wins byGS wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more51%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more36%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.7 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.550%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted
Golden State Warriors
GNate Williamsstarted
GLJ Cryerstarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
GWill Richardstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·GS
Mar 30 vs CHI
last game
Mar 29 at DEN
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 1, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAEmanuel Miller · management g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SALuke Kornet · right knee; injuryOut
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · right soleus; strainOut
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left thumb; strainOut
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; surgeryOut
GSKristaps Porzingis · general; illness managementOut
GSMoses Moody · left patellar tendon; surgeryOut
GSQuinten Post · right foot; injury managementOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
GSGary Payton II · right knee; injury managementQuestionable
GSGui Santos · right pelvic; contusionQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 75+ games
SA·GS
+0.74
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
119.4
points / game
114.9
111.4
points allowed / game
114.9
57−19
season record
36−39
29−7
home record
21−15
28−12
away record
15−24
W9
streak
L1
9−1
last 10
4−6
48.3
FG%
46.1
35.8
3P%
35.4
46.9
rebounds / game
42.6
27.9
assists / game
29.0
13.4
turnovers / game
15.8
51.4
points in paint / game
44.8

Rating Trend

SA · GS · 148 days
San Antonio SpursGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 6−4
Feb 11at GSSA 126 − 113
Nov 14, 2025at SAGS 109 − 108
Nov 12, 2025at SAGS 125 − 120
Apr 9, 2025at GSSA 114 − 111
Mar 30, 2025at SAGS 148 − 106
Nov 23, 2024at SASA 104 − 94
Mar 31, 2024at SAGS 117 − 113
Mar 11, 2024at SAGS 112 − 102
Mar 9, 2024at GSSA 126 − 113
Nov 24, 2023at GSGS 118 − 112

SA · Last 10

9−1 · streak W9
Mar 30vs CHI129 − 114W
Mar 28at MIL127 − 95W
Mar 25at MEM123 − 98W
Mar 23at MIA136 − 111W
Mar 21vs IND134 − 119W
Mar 19vs PHX101 − 100W
Mar 17at SAC132 − 104W
Mar 16at LAC119 − 115W
Mar 14vs CHA115 − 102W
Mar 12vs DEN131 − 136L

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Mar 29at DEN93 − 116L
Mar 27vs WSH131 − 126W
Mar 25vs BKN109 − 106W
Mar 23at DAL137 − 131W
Mar 21at ATL110 − 126L
Mar 20at DET101 − 115L
Mar 18at BOS99 − 120L
Mar 16at WSH125 − 117W
Mar 15at NY107 − 110L
Mar 13vs MIN117 − 127L