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Pacers at Spurs

NBA · Saturday, Mar 21 · 7:00 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final IND 119 – SA 134
← NBA / Mar 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND29243234119
SA42243434134
Team box
IND·SA
44-85
field goals
53-97
16-35
3-pointers
13-34
15-19
free throws
15-17
26
rebounds
49
38
assists
33
10
turnovers
12
48
points in paint
76
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Andrew NembhardIND282517
Keldon JohnsonSA252444
Dylan HarperSA282443
Jarace WalkerIND352144
Victor WembanyamaSA262086
De'Aaron FoxSA261437

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +28
IND +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 28 · IND 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 22%, SA 78% · Updated Mar 21

Expected margin
SA by 10.6
Expected score
SA 121.3 – 110.8 IND
Expected total
232.1
PacersThe matchupSpurs
+359Our fair odds−359
110.8Expected points121.3
−0.52Power rating+0.58
111.3Points / game118.7
120.2Allowed / game111.7
45.2FG%48.0
35.03P%35.6
42.1Rebounds / game46.5
15−55Season record52−19
0−10Last 109−1
Ivica Zubac · Johnny Furphy
Tyrese HaliburtonOutDavid Jones Garcia · Emanuel Miller
Harrison Ingram · Stephon Castle

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · SA chance
Our model fair21.8%78.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+35922%————
SASan Antonio Spurs−35978%————
SpreadSA by 10.6
INDIndiana Pacers+10.6our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−10.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.1
Over232.1our total————
Under232.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 10.6 expected
Indiana Pacers by 52 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 51 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 50 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 49 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 48 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 48 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 49 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 50 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 51 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 52 points: <1%
← IND wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more68%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more53%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more38%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.1 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.568%
Total over 232.548%
Total over 242.529%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GQuenton Jacksonstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDylan Harperstarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·SA
Mar 18 vs POR
last game
Mar 19 vs PHX
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 21, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDIvica Zubac · rib; fractureOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl; tearOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDAaron Nesmith · right ankle; injury managementQuestionable
INDAndrew Nembhard · right calf; contusionQuestionable
INDBen Sheppard · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayQuestionable
INDJalen Slawson · g league - two-wayQuestionable
INDMicah Potter · right triceps; strainQuestionable
INDObi Toppin · right foot; injury managementQuestionable
and 4 more
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAStephon Castle · right hip; tightnessOut
SAVictor Wembanyama · right ankle; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
IND·SA
−0.52
rating (0 = average)
+0.58
111.3
points / game
118.7
120.2
points allowed / game
111.7
15−55
season record
52−19
10−25
home record
27−7
5−30
away record
25−12
L15
streak
W4
0−10
last 10
9−1
45.2
FG%
48.0
35.0
3P%
35.6
42.1
rebounds / game
46.5
26.6
assists / game
27.5
14.5
turnovers / game
13.5
45.5
points in paint / game
50.6

Rating Trend

IND · SA · 137 days
Indiana PacersSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · SA 5−4
Jan 2at INDSA 123 − 113
Jan 25, 2025at SAIND 136 − 98
Jan 23, 2025at INDSA 140 − 110
Mar 3, 2024at SASA 117 − 105
Nov 6, 2023at INDIND 152 − 111
Mar 2, 2023at SASA 110 − 99
Oct 21, 2022at INDSA 137 − 134
Mar 12, 2022at SAIND 119 − 108
Nov 1, 2021at INDIND 131 − 118

IND · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Mar 18vs POR119 − 127L
Mar 17at NY110 − 136L
Mar 15at MIL123 − 134L
Mar 13vs NY92 − 101L
Mar 12vs PHX108 − 123L
Mar 10at SAC109 − 114L
Mar 8at POR111 − 131L
Mar 6at LAL117 − 128L
Mar 4at LAC107 − 130L
Mar 1vs MEM106 − 125L

SA · Last 10

9−1 · streak W4
Mar 19vs PHX101 − 100W
Mar 17at SAC132 − 104W
Mar 16at LAC119 − 115W
Mar 14vs CHA115 − 102W
Mar 12vs DEN131 − 136L
Mar 10vs BOS125 − 116W
Mar 8vs HOU145 − 120W
Mar 6vs LAC116 − 112W
Mar 5vs DET121 − 106W
Mar 3at PHI131 − 91W