bayesRatings

Spurs at Grizzlies

NBA · Wednesday, Mar 25 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final SA 123 – MEM 98
← NBA / Mar 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA38194125123
MEM1925203498
Team box
SA·MEM
46-89
field goals
34-86
16-46
3-pointers
16-50
15-22
free throws
14-20
59
rebounds
33
36
assists
26
15
turnovers
12
56
points in paint
34
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
GG JacksonMEM302072
Victor WembanyamaSA2719153
Devin VassellSA261974
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM251750
Stephon CastleSA261539
Keldon JohnsonSA221573

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +39
SA +39
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 0 · SA 39lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 69%, MEM 31% · Updated Mar 25

Expected margin
SA by 6.5
Expected score
SA 122.0 – 115.5 MEM
Expected total
237.4
SpursThe matchupGrizzlies
−224Our fair odds+224
122.0Expected points115.5
+0.66Power rating−0.37
119.1Points / game115.3
111.8Allowed / game119.1
48.1FG%46.0
35.73P%35.4
46.7Rebounds / game43.1
54−19Season record24−47
9−1Last 101−9
David Jones Garcia · De'Aaron Fox
Emanuel Miller · Harrison Ingram
Luke KornetOut (5 each)Brandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Jaylen Wells · Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Santi Aldama

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · MEM chance
Our model fair69.1%30.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs−22469%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+22431%————
SpreadSA by 6.5
SASan Antonio Spurs−6.5our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+6.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.4
Over237.4our total————
Under237.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 6.5 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 47 points: <1%
← SA wins byMEM wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more58%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more42%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

237.4 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.568%
Total over 237.548%
Total over 247.530%
Total from 228 to 24738%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
GDylan Harperstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GJavon Smallstarted
FOlivier-Maxence Prosperstarted
FTaylor Hendricksstarted
FCedric Cowardstarted
FGG Jacksonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·MEM
Mar 23 at MIA
last game
Mar 23 at ATL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 25, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SADe'Aaron Fox · low back; tightnessOut
SAEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SALuke Kornet · right knee; injury managementOut
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMJaylen Wells · right great toe; sorenessOut
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right 5th finger; surgery recoveryOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · right great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · left ankle; sprainOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; surgery recoveryOut
MEMJahmai Mashack · left ankle; sprainDoubtful
MEMJavon Small · low back; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 71+ games
SA·MEM
+0.66
rating (0 = average)
−0.37
119.1
points / game
115.3
111.8
points allowed / game
119.1
54−19
season record
24−47
28−7
home record
13−21
26−12
away record
11−26
W6
streak
L3
9−1
last 10
1−9
48.1
FG%
46.0
35.7
3P%
35.4
46.7
rebounds / game
43.1
27.7
assists / game
28.2
13.5
turnovers / game
15.2
51.1
points in paint / game
49.0

Rating Trend

SA · MEM · 141 days
San Antonio SpursMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MEM 6−4
Jan 6at MEMMEM 106 − 105
Dec 2, 2025at SASA 126 − 119
Nov 18, 2025at SASA 111 − 101
Mar 1, 2025at MEMSA 130 − 128
Feb 3, 2025at MEMMEM 128 − 109
Jan 17, 2025at SAMEM 140 − 112
Jan 15, 2025at SAMEM 129 − 115
Apr 9, 2024at MEMSA 102 − 87
Mar 22, 2024at SAMEM 99 − 97
Jan 2, 2024at MEMMEM 106 − 98

SA · Last 10

9−1 · streak W6
Mar 23at MIA136 − 111W
Mar 21vs IND134 − 119W
Mar 19vs PHX101 − 100W
Mar 17at SAC132 − 104W
Mar 16at LAC119 − 115W
Mar 14vs CHA115 − 102W
Mar 12vs DEN131 − 136L
Mar 10vs BOS125 − 116W
Mar 8vs HOU145 − 120W
Mar 6vs LAC116 − 112W

MEM · Last 10

1−9 · streak L3
Mar 23at ATL107 − 146L
Mar 21at CHA101 − 124L
Mar 20vs BOS112 − 117L
Mar 18vs DEN125 − 118W
Mar 16at CHI107 − 132L
Mar 13at DET110 − 126L
Mar 12vs DAL112 − 120L
Mar 10at PHI129 − 139L
Mar 9at BKN115 − 126L
Mar 7vs LAC120 − 123L