bayesRatings

Grizzlies at Hawks

NBA · Monday, Mar 23 · 6:30 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final MEM 107 – ATL 146
← NBA / Mar 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM22242932107
ATL32394530146
Team box
MEM·ATL
35-83
field goals
49-92
14-43
3-pointers
25-54
23-26
free throws
23-25
34
rebounds
44
20
assists
37
23
turnovers
11
40
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL262626
GG JacksonMEM302630
Tyler BurtonMEM282081
Ty JeromeMEM241714
Jonathan KumingaATL201653
Onyeka OkongwuATL201652

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +44
MEM +44
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 44 · MEM 5lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 35%, ATL 65% · Updated Mar 23

Expected margin
ATL by 4.5
Expected score
ATL 122.5 – 118.0 MEM
Expected total
240.6
GrizzliesThe matchupHawks
+183Our fair odds−183
118.0Expected points122.5
−0.33Power rating+0.09
115.5Points / game117.9
118.7Allowed / game116.5
46.0FG%47.3
35.43P%36.5
43.3Rebounds / game43.4
24−46Season record39−32
1−9Last 109−1
Brandon Clarke · Cedric Coward
Ja Morant · Jahmai Mashack
Kentavious Caldwell-PopeOutAsa Newell · Keshon Gilbert
RayJ Dennis

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · ATL chance
Our model fair35.3%64.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+18335%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−18365%————
SpreadATL by 4.5
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+4.5our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−4.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 240.6
Over240.6our total————
Under240.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 4.5 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%
← MEM wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more52%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more37%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

240.6 expected
190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 230.568%
Total over 240.549%
Total over 250.531%
Total from 231 to 25037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
GTy Jeromestarted
GRayan Rupertstarted
FOlivier-Maxence Prosperstarted
FGG Jacksonstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FMouhamed Gueyestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·ATL
Mar 21 at CHA
last game
Mar 21 vs GS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 23, 5:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMCedric Coward · personal reasonsOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMJahmai Mashack · left ankle; sprainOut
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right 5th finger; surgery recoveryOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · right great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; surgery recoveryOut
MEMCam Spencer · low back; sorenessDoubtful
MEMJavon Small · low back; sorenessQuestionable
and 1 more
Atlanta Hawks
ATLAsa Newell · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLKeshon Gilbert · g league - two-wayOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut
ATLJalen Johnson · left shoulder; inflammationQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
MEM·ATL
−0.33
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
115.5
points / game
117.9
118.7
points allowed / game
116.5
24−46
season record
39−32
13−21
home record
20−16
11−25
away record
19−16
L2
streak
W1
1−9
last 10
9−1
46.0
FG%
47.3
35.4
3P%
36.5
43.3
rebounds / game
43.4
28.3
assists / game
30.3
15.0
turnovers / game
14.3
49.1
points in paint / game
52.3

Rating Trend

MEM · ATL · 139 days
Memphis GrizzliesAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ATL 5−4
Jan 21at MEMATL 124 − 122
Mar 3, 2025at MEMATL 132 − 130
Dec 21, 2024at ATLMEM 128 − 112
Mar 8, 2024at MEMATL 99 − 92
Dec 23, 2023at ATLMEM 125 − 119
Mar 26, 2023at ATLMEM 123 − 119
Dec 12, 2022at MEMMEM 128 − 103
Mar 18, 2022at ATLATL 120 − 105
Nov 26, 2021at MEMATL 132 − 100

MEM · Last 10

1−9 · streak L2
Mar 21at CHA101 − 124L
Mar 20vs BOS112 − 117L
Mar 18vs DEN125 − 118W
Mar 16at CHI107 − 132L
Mar 13at DET110 − 126L
Mar 12vs DAL112 − 120L
Mar 10at PHI129 − 139L
Mar 9at BKN115 − 126L
Mar 7vs LAC120 − 123L
Mar 4vs POR114 − 122L

ATL · Last 10

9−1 · streak W1
Mar 21vs GS126 − 110W
Mar 20at HOU95 − 117L
Mar 18at DAL135 − 120W
Mar 16vs ORL124 − 112W
Mar 14vs MIL122 − 99W
Mar 12vs BKN108 − 97W
Mar 10vs DAL124 − 112W
Mar 7vs PHI125 − 116W
Mar 4at MIL131 − 113W
Mar 1vs POR135 − 101W