bayesRatings

Grizzlies at Hornets

NBA · Saturday, Mar 21 · 6:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final MEM 101 – CHA 124
← NBA / Mar 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM26212826101
CHA30293827124
Team box
MEM·CHA
35-86
field goals
45-85
16-46
3-pointers
18-43
15-19
free throws
16-24
34
rebounds
49
20
assists
25
13
turnovers
18
38
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
LaMelo BallCHA292934
Brandon MillerCHA302253
GG JacksonMEM241931
Javon SmallMEM291773
Taylor HendricksMEM251423
Miles BridgesCHA271341

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +26
MEM +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 26 · MEM 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 39%, CHA 61% · Updated Mar 21

Expected margin
CHA by 3.8
Expected score
CHA 117.2 – 113.4 MEM
Expected total
230.6
GrizzliesThe matchupHornets
+155Our fair odds−155
113.4Expected points117.2
−0.33Power rating−0.08
115.7Points / game116.0
118.6Allowed / game112.2
46.1FG%46.0
35.43P%38.0
43.4Rebounds / game46.1
24−45Season record36−34
1−9Last 107−3
Brandon Clarke · Cedric Coward
Ja Morant · Jahmai Mashack
Kentavious Caldwell-PopeOut (5 each)Antonio Reeves · Liam McNeeley
PJ Hall · Tidjane Salaun
Tosan Evbuomwan

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · CHA chance
Our model fair39.2%60.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+15539%————
CHACharlotte Hornets−15561%————
SpreadCHA by 3.8
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+3.8our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets−3.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.6
Over230.6our total————
Under230.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Charlotte Hornets by 3.8 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%
← MEM wins byCHA wins by →
Charlotte Hornets wins by 5 or more51%
Charlotte Hornets wins by 10 or more35%
Charlotte Hornets wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.6 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.569%
Total over 230.549%
Total over 240.530%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
GJavon Smallstarted
GWalter Clayton Jr.started
FOlivier-Maxence Prosperstarted
FGG Jacksonstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·CHA
Mar 20 vs BOS
last game
Mar 19 vs ORL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 21, 5:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMCedric Coward · personal reasonsOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMJahmai Mashack · left ankle; sprainOut
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right 5th finger; surgery recoveryOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · right great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; injury managementDoubtful
MEMDeJon Jarreau · right ankle; sorenessQuestionable
and 1 more
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHALiam McNeeley · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAPJ Hall · g league - two-wayOut
CHATidjane Salaun · left calf; strainOut
CHATosan Evbuomwan · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 69+ games
MEM·CHA
−0.33
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
115.7
points / game
116.0
118.6
points allowed / game
112.2
24−45
season record
36−34
13−21
home record
16−17
11−24
away record
20−17
L1
streak
W2
1−9
last 10
7−3
46.1
FG%
46.0
35.4
3P%
38.0
43.4
rebounds / game
46.1
28.4
assists / game
26.5
15.1
turnovers / game
15.6
49.2
points in paint / game
45.5

Rating Trend

MEM · CHA · 137 days
Memphis GrizzliesCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CHA 4−5
Jan 28at MEMCHA 112 − 97
Apr 8, 2025at CHAMEM 124 − 100
Jan 22, 2025at MEMMEM 132 − 120
Mar 13, 2024at MEMCHA 110 − 98
Feb 10, 2024at CHACHA 115 − 106
Jan 4, 2023at CHAMEM 131 − 107
Nov 4, 2022at MEMMEM 130 − 99
Feb 12, 2022at CHAMEM 125 − 118
Nov 10, 2021at MEMCHA 118 − 108

MEM · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Mar 20vs BOS112 − 117L
Mar 18vs DEN125 − 118W
Mar 16at CHI107 − 132L
Mar 13at DET110 − 126L
Mar 12vs DAL112 − 120L
Mar 10at PHI129 − 139L
Mar 9at BKN115 − 126L
Mar 7vs LAC120 − 123L
Mar 4vs POR114 − 122L
Mar 3at MIN110 − 117L

CHA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Mar 19vs ORL130 − 111W
Mar 17vs MIA136 − 106W
Mar 14at SA102 − 115L
Mar 11at SAC117 − 109W
Mar 10at POR103 − 101W
Mar 8at PHX99 − 111L
Mar 6vs MIA120 − 128L
Mar 4at BOS118 − 89W
Mar 3vs DAL117 − 90W
Feb 28vs POR109 − 93W