bayesRatings

Heat at Hornets

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 17 · 6:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final MIA 106 – CHA 136
← NBA / Mar 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA24333118106
CHA26333740136
Team box
MIA·CHA
36-89
field goals
51-96
7-36
3-pointers
17-42
27-34
free throws
17-21
43
rebounds
48
26
assists
32
15
turnovers
14
56
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
LaMelo BallCHA3330613
Coby WhiteCHA202433
Kon KnueppelCHA242222
Tyler HerroMIA312085
Norman PowellMIA311763
Brandon MillerCHA261622

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +30
MIA +30
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 30 · MIA 4lead changes: 19

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 52%, CHA 48% · Updated Mar 17

Expected margin
MIA by 1.0
Expected score
MIA 114.5 – 113.5 CHA
Expected total
228.0
HeatThe matchupHornets
−108Our fair odds+108
114.5Expected points113.5
+0.20Power rating−0.08
120.4Points / game115.5
116.6Allowed / game112.3
46.5FG%45.8
35.83P%37.8
47.0Rebounds / game46.1
38−30Season record34−34
7−3Last 107−3
Andrew Wiggins · Terry RozierOutAntonio Reeves · Liam McNeeley
PJ Hall · Tidjane Salaun
Tosan Evbuomwan

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · CHA chance
Our model fair51.9%48.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat−10852%————
CHACharlotte Hornets+10848%————
SpreadMIA by 1.0
MIAMiami Heat−1our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.0
Over228.0our total————
Under228.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 1.0 expected
Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%
← MIA wins byCHA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more42%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more29%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.0 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.568%
Total over 228.548%
Total over 238.529%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GTyler Herrostarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
CKel'el Warestarted
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·CHA
Mar 14 vs ORL
last game
Mar 14 at SA
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 17, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAAndrew Wiggins · left big toe; sesamoiditisOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIABam Adebayo · right calf; tightnessDoubtful
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHALiam McNeeley · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAPJ Hall · g league - two-wayOut
CHATidjane Salaun · left calf; strainOut
CHATosan Evbuomwan · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
MIA·CHA
+0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
120.4
points / game
115.5
116.6
points allowed / game
112.3
38−30
season record
34−34
23−12
home record
14−17
15−18
away record
20−17
L1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
7−3
46.5
FG%
45.8
35.8
3P%
37.8
47.0
rebounds / game
46.1
28.6
assists / game
26.4
13.9
turnovers / game
15.5
54.6
points in paint / game
45.4

Rating Trend

MIA · CHA · 133 days
Miami HeatCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHA 1−9
Mar 6at CHAMIA 128 − 120
Nov 7, 2025at MIAMIA 126 − 108
Oct 28, 2025at MIAMIA 144 − 117
Mar 23, 2025at MIAMIA 122 − 105
Mar 10, 2025at MIACHA 105 − 102
Nov 27, 2024at CHAMIA 98 − 94
Oct 26, 2024at CHAMIA 114 − 106
Jan 14, 2024at MIAMIA 104 − 87
Dec 13, 2023at MIAMIA 115 − 104
Dec 11, 2023at CHAMIA 116 − 114

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Mar 14vs ORL117 − 121L
Mar 12vs MIL112 − 105W
Mar 10vs WSH150 − 129W
Mar 8vs DET121 − 110W
Mar 6at CHA128 − 120W
Mar 5vs BKN126 − 110W
Mar 3vs BKN124 − 98W
Feb 28vs HOU115 − 105W
Feb 26at PHI117 − 124L
Feb 24at MIL117 − 128L

CHA · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Mar 14at SA102 − 115L
Mar 11at SAC117 − 109W
Mar 10at POR103 − 101W
Mar 8at PHX99 − 111L
Mar 6vs MIA120 − 128L
Mar 4at BOS118 − 89W
Mar 3vs DAL117 − 90W
Feb 28vs POR109 − 93W
Feb 26at IND133 − 109W
Feb 24at CHI131 − 99W