bayesRatings

Magic at Hornets

NBA · Thursday, Mar 19 · 6:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final ORL 111 – CHA 130
← NBA / Mar 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ORL32212434111
CHA34383820130
Team box
ORL·CHA
39-93
field goals
42-80
14-42
3-pointers
22-46
19-21
free throws
24-27
31
rebounds
41
24
assists
28
14
turnovers
22
42
points in paint
38
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Coby WhiteCHA232735
Brandon MillerCHA282548
Desmond BaneORL262472
LaMelo BallCHA202065
Paolo BancheroORL282037
Kon KnueppelCHA251764

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +35
ORL +35
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 35 · ORL 8lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ORL 51%, CHA 49% · Updated Mar 19

Expected margin
CHA by 0.7
Expected score
CHA 110.2 – 109.5 ORL
Expected total
219.7
MagicThe matchupHornets
−102Our fair odds+102
109.5Expected points110.2
+0.14Power rating−0.08
115.5Points / game115.8
114.2Allowed / game112.2
46.4FG%45.9
34.03P%37.9
43.7Rebounds / game46.1
38−30Season record35−34
7−3Last 107−3
Anthony Black · Franz Wagner
Jonathan Isaac · Wendell Carter Jr.OutAntonio Reeves · Liam McNeeley
PJ Hall · Tidjane Salaun
Tosan Evbuomwan

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ORL chance · CHA chance
Our model fair50.6%49.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ORLOrlando Magic−10251%————
CHACharlotte Hornets+10249%————
SpreadCHA by 0.7
ORLOrlando Magic+0.7our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 219.7
Over219.7our total————
Under219.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Charlotte Hornets by 0.7 expected
Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%
← ORL wins byCHA wins by →
Charlotte Hornets wins by 5 or more42%
Charlotte Hornets wins by 10 or more29%
Charlotte Hornets wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

219.7 expected
173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 209.570%
Total over 219.550%
Total over 229.530%
Total from 210 to 22939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FTristan da Silvastarted
CGoga Bitadzestarted
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ORL·CHA
Mar 17 vs OKC
last game
Mar 17 vs MIA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 19, 5:00 PM ET
Orlando Magic
ORLAnthony Black · left lateral abdominal; strainOut
ORLFranz Wagner · left high ankle; sprain injury managementOut
ORLJonathan Isaac · contusion left knee; sprainOut
ORLWendell Carter Jr. · left rib; mildOut
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHALiam McNeeley · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAPJ Hall · g league - two-wayOut
CHATidjane Salaun · left calf; strainOut
CHATosan Evbuomwan · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
ORL·CHA
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
115.5
points / game
115.8
114.2
points allowed / game
112.2
38−30
season record
35−34
22−13
home record
15−17
16−17
away record
20−17
L2
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
7−3
46.4
FG%
45.9
34.0
3P%
37.9
43.7
rebounds / game
46.1
26.4
assists / game
26.5
13.7
turnovers / game
15.5
51.5
points in paint / game
45.6

Rating Trend

ORL · CHA · 135 days
Orlando MagicCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHA 3−7
Jan 22at ORLCHA 124 − 97
Dec 26, 2025at ORLCHA 120 − 105
Oct 30, 2025at CHAORL 123 − 107
Mar 25, 2025at CHAORL 111 − 104
Feb 12, 2025at ORLORL 102 − 86
Nov 25, 2024at CHAORL 95 − 84
Nov 12, 2024at ORLORL 114 − 89
Apr 5, 2024at CHACHA 124 − 115
Mar 19, 2024at ORLORL 112 − 92
Mar 5, 2024at CHAORL 101 − 89

ORL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Mar 17vs OKC108 − 113L
Mar 16at ATL112 − 124L
Mar 14at MIA121 − 117W
Mar 12vs WSH136 − 131W
Mar 11vs CLE128 − 122W
Mar 8at MIL130 − 91W
Mar 7at MIN119 − 92W
Mar 5vs DAL115 − 114W
Mar 3vs WSH126 − 109W
Mar 1vs DET92 − 106L

CHA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Mar 17vs MIA136 − 106W
Mar 14at SA102 − 115L
Mar 11at SAC117 − 109W
Mar 10at POR103 − 101W
Mar 8at PHX99 − 111L
Mar 6vs MIA120 − 128L
Mar 4at BOS118 − 89W
Mar 3vs DAL117 − 90W
Feb 28vs POR109 − 93W
Feb 26at IND133 − 109W