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Spurs at Heat

NBA · Monday, Mar 23 · 6:00 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final SA 136 – MIA 111
← NBA / Mar 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA38383228136
MIA31272330111
Team box
SA·MIA
48-101
field goals
38-95
15-43
3-pointers
16-52
25-28
free throws
19-20
62
rebounds
38
33
assists
29
15
turnovers
12
60
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Victor WembanyamaSA2626154
Dylan HarperSA252146
Keldon JohnsonSA242161
Norman PowellMIA302142
Stephon CastleSA231976
Bam AdebayoMIA291834

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +30
SA +30
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 1 · SA 30lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 55%, MIA 45% · Updated Mar 23

Expected margin
SA by 1.0
Expected score
SA 117.5 – 116.5 MIA
Expected total
234.1
SpursThe matchupHeat
−121Our fair odds+121
117.5Expected points116.5
+0.58Power rating+0.20
118.9Points / game120.3
111.8Allowed / game117.2
48.1FG%46.5
35.73P%35.5
46.5Rebounds / game46.8
53−19Season record38−33
9−1Last 106−4
David Jones Garcia · Emanuel Miller
Harrison IngramOutJahmir Young · Terry Rozier
Trevor Keels · Vladislav Goldin

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · MIA chance
Our model fair54.7%45.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs−12155%————
MIAMiami Heat+12145%————
SpreadSA by 1.0
SASan Antonio Spurs−1our margin————
MIAMiami Heat+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.1
Over234.1our total————
Under234.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 1.0 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%
← SA wins byMIA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more42%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more29%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

234.1 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.568%
Total over 234.548%
Total over 244.529%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted
Miami Heat
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GTyler Herrostarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·MIA
Mar 21 vs IND
last game
Mar 21 at HOU
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 23, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SADevin Vassell · right hamstring; tightnessQuestionable
Miami Heat
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATrevor Keels · g league - two-wayOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 71+ games
SA·MIA
+0.58
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
118.9
points / game
120.3
111.8
points allowed / game
117.2
53−19
season record
38−33
28−7
home record
23−13
25−12
away record
15−20
W5
streak
L4
9−1
last 10
6−4
48.1
FG%
46.5
35.7
3P%
35.5
46.5
rebounds / game
46.8
27.6
assists / game
28.7
13.4
turnovers / game
13.8
51.0
points in paint / game
54.8

Rating Trend

SA · MIA · 139 days
San Antonio SpursMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIA 7−2
Oct 30, 2025at SASA 107 − 101
Feb 1, 2025at SAMIA 105 − 103
Jan 19, 2025at MIAMIA 128 − 107
Feb 7, 2024at MIAMIA 116 − 104
Nov 12, 2023at SAMIA 118 − 113
Dec 17, 2022at SAMIA 111 − 101
Dec 10, 2022at MIASA 115 − 111
Feb 26, 2022at MIAMIA 133 − 129
Feb 3, 2022at SAMIA 112 − 95

SA · Last 10

9−1 · streak W5
Mar 21vs IND134 − 119W
Mar 19vs PHX101 − 100W
Mar 17at SAC132 − 104W
Mar 16at LAC119 − 115W
Mar 14vs CHA115 − 102W
Mar 12vs DEN131 − 136L
Mar 10vs BOS125 − 116W
Mar 8vs HOU145 − 120W
Mar 6vs LAC116 − 112W
Mar 5vs DET121 − 106W

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L4
Mar 21at HOU122 − 123L
Mar 19vs LAL126 − 134L
Mar 17at CHA106 − 136L
Mar 14vs ORL117 − 121L
Mar 12vs MIL112 − 105W
Mar 10vs WSH150 − 129W
Mar 8vs DET121 − 110W
Mar 6at CHA128 − 120W
Mar 5vs BKN126 − 110W
Mar 3vs BKN124 − 98W