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Lakers at Heat

NBA · Thursday, Mar 19 · 7:00 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final LAL 134 – MIA 126
← NBA / Mar 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL29303837134
MIA42232338126
Team box
LAL·MIA
43-81
field goals
48-94
14-32
3-pointers
12-38
34-45
free throws
18-22
47
rebounds
41
23
assists
31
13
turnovers
11
50
points in paint
70
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL386073
Bam AdebayoMIA3828102
Tyler HerroMIA332185
Norman PowellMIA332023
LeBron JamesLAL38191510
Austin ReavesLAL401854

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +15
LAL +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 15 · LAL 13lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 47%, MIA 53% · Updated Mar 19

Expected margin
MIA by 2.0
Expected score
MIA 117.1 – 115.1 LAL
Expected total
232.2
LakersThe matchupHeat
+111Our fair odds−111
115.1Expected points117.1
+0.28Power rating+0.20
116.4Points / game120.2
114.9Allowed / game116.9
50.0FG%46.4
35.93P%35.5
40.8Rebounds / game47.0
44−25Season record38−31
9−1Last 107−3
Maxi KleberOutAndrew Wiggins · Jahmir Young
Jaime Jaquez Jr. · Terry Rozier
Trevor Keels

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · MIA chance
Our model fair47.3%52.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers+11147%————
MIAMiami Heat−11153%————
SpreadMIA by 2.0
LALLos Angeles Lakers+2our margin————
MIAMiami Heat−2our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.2
Over232.2our total————
Under232.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 2.0 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%
← LAL wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more46%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more31%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.2 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.568%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.529%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted
Miami Heat
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GTyler Herrostarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FSimone Fontecchiostarted
CBam Adebayostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·MIA
Mar 18 at HOU
last game
Mar 17 at CHA
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 19, 5:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALMaxi Kleber · lumbar; back strainOut
LALAustin Reaves · right forearm; contusionQuestionable
LALLeBron James · left foot; arthritisQuestionable
LALLuka Doncic · right hip; sorenessQuestionable
Miami Heat
MIAAndrew Wiggins · left big toe; sesamoiditisOut
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIAJaime Jaquez Jr. · left hip; tightnessOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATrevor Keels · g league - two-wayOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 69+ games
LAL·MIA
+0.28
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
116.4
points / game
120.2
114.9
points allowed / game
116.9
44−25
season record
38−31
23−12
home record
23−12
21−13
away record
15−19
W7
streak
L2
9−1
last 10
7−3
50.0
FG%
46.4
35.9
3P%
35.5
40.8
rebounds / game
47.0
25.6
assists / game
28.6
14.5
turnovers / game
14.0
51.8
points in paint / game
54.6

Rating Trend

LAL · MIA · 135 days
Los Angeles LakersMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIA 5−4
Nov 2, 2025at LALLAL 130 − 120
Jan 15, 2025at LALLAL 117 − 108
Dec 4, 2024at MIAMIA 134 − 93
Jan 3, 2024at LALMIA 110 − 96
Nov 6, 2023at MIAMIA 108 − 107
Jan 4, 2023at LALLAL 112 − 109
Dec 28, 2022at MIAMIA 112 − 98
Jan 23, 2022at MIAMIA 113 − 107
Nov 10, 2021at LALLAL 120 − 117

LAL · Last 10

9−1 · streak W7
Mar 18at HOU124 − 116W
Mar 16at HOU100 − 92W
Mar 14vs DEN127 − 125W
Mar 12vs CHI142 − 130W
Mar 10vs MIN120 − 106W
Mar 8vs NY110 − 97W
Mar 6vs IND128 − 117W
Mar 5at DEN113 − 120L
Mar 3vs NO110 − 101W
Mar 1vs SAC128 − 104W

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Mar 17at CHA106 − 136L
Mar 14vs ORL117 − 121L
Mar 12vs MIL112 − 105W
Mar 10vs WSH150 − 129W
Mar 8vs DET121 − 110W
Mar 6at CHA128 − 120W
Mar 5vs BKN126 − 110W
Mar 3vs BKN124 − 98W
Feb 28vs HOU115 − 105W
Feb 26at PHI117 − 124L